Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)

NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$67.67-3.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Allegiant Travel Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-10.5% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.00 → 9.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	-$1–$0non-GAAP	—
Operating margin	1%–3%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.1B
EPS	—	0.872
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.72B
EPS	Over $6non-GAAP	5.505
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.54B
EPS	—	9.846

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain liquidity above $1.2B and disciplined CAPEX	A supporting condition in Allegiant Travel Company's published investment case. The stated target is Liquidity >= $1.2B; CAPEX $570-$590M.	Broken	Liquidity falls below $1.1B or CAPEX exceeds $590M	Capital expenditures: $120.713M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Liquidity >= $1.2B; CAPEX $570-$590M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026120,713,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Liquidity improved from $1.1B at 2025-Q4 to $1.3B at 2026-Q2. The company issued $650M senior secured notes due 2031 and repurchased $377.5M of 2027 notes in 2026-Q2, demonstrating active debt management. Capital expenditures remain disciplined with guidance of $640-$660M for aircraft-related CAPEX in 2026. The trajectory shows delivering on capital allocation and liquidity management. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Boeing 737-8200 fleet grows to 25 aircraft	A supporting condition in Allegiant Travel Company's published investment case. The stated target is 25 aircraft.	Intact	Fleet size fails to reach 20 Boeing 737-8200 aircraft by end 2026	Fleet expansion advancing (6 new 737-8s ordered) vs 25 aircraft target Allegiant exercised 6 Boeing 737-8 options for 2028 delivery, reinforcing fleet expansion goals. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The fleet plan shows growth of Boeing 737 MAX-8 aircraft from 19 in 2026-Q2 to 25 by year-end 2026, reflecting ongoing fleet expansion and modernization. Airbus A320 fleet remains stable. This aligns with management's stated focus on fleet optimization and expansion, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating margin near 14.9%	A primary condition in Allegiant Travel Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=14.9%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 13.5% next year	Operating margin: 2.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14.9%. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 20262.237862 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c0a65222-b4c9-4444-8aea-badfdf9c157c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income improved from a loss of $67.5M in 2025-Q2 to a profit of $21.1M in 2026-Q2, and adjusted operating margin rose from 8.6% to 9.0% over the same period despite a 73% increase in fuel costs. Management has consistently emphasized margin expansion and operational efficiency, and the financial results show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $2.99 billion	Revenue is expected to grow to about $2.99 billion by 2027.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below ~$2.66B in FY26	Revenue: $943.49M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.99B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026943,490,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c0a65222-b4c9-4444-8aea-badfdf9c157c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition of Sun Country closed in mid-May 2026, with management confident to achieve at least $140 million in annual run-rate synergies within three years. The integration is progressing with the combined company reporting record revenues and earnings in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering as the combined entity is operational and financial results reflect the merger benefits beginning 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.85

$12.12 → $9.85 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.54B

$4.33B → $4.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-07-25	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-07-26	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-07-27	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-07-28	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-07-29	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-07-30	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-07-31	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-08-01	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-08-02	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-08-03	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-08-04	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-08-05	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-08-06	$12.12	$4,334,016,780	14 / 11
2026-08-07	$12.31	$4,359,161,144	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$12.46	$4,360,488,610	13 / 11
2026-08-09	$12.46	$4,360,488,610	13 / 11
2026-08-10	$12.46	$4,360,488,610	13 / 11
2026-08-11	$12.38	$4,360,488,610	14 / 11
2026-08-12	$12.38	$4,360,488,610	14 / 11
2026-08-13	$12.38	$4,360,488,610	14 / 11
2026-08-14	$12.31	$4,359,161,144	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$12.31	$4,359,161,144	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$12.31	$4,359,161,144	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$12.31	$4,359,161,144	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$12.31	$4,359,161,144	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$12.31	$4,359,161,144	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$11.85	$4,380,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$11.85	$4,380,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$11.85	$4,380,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$11.85	$4,380,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$11.85	$4,380,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$11.78	$4,387,639,825	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$11.73	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$11.35	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$11.35	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$11.35	$4,389,185,280	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$11.20	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$11.20	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$11.00	$4,415,152,425	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$10.78	$4,439,854,412	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$10.78	$4,439,852,425	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$10.78	$4,439,852,425	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$10.77	$4,439,852,425	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$10.77	$4,458,579,697	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$10.77	$4,458,579,697	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$10.77	$4,458,579,697	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$10.68	$4,481,699,152	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$10.68	$4,481,699,152	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$10.68	$4,481,699,152	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$10.68	$4,481,699,152	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$10.55	$4,499,613,555	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$10.16	$4,501,303,902	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$9.94	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$9.94	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-16	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-17	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-18	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-19	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-20	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-21	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-22	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-23	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8
2026-10-24	$9.85	$4,539,739,531	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	6
2026-06-01	7	6
2026-07-01	10	5
2026-08-01	11	4
2026-09-01	11	4
2026-10-01	11	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

SusquehannaOct 7 · prior Jul 7

$132.00 → $85.00-35.6%

Raymond JamesOct 7 · prior Aug 24

$116.00 → $110.00-5.2%

$0$72.60$145.20

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain liquidity above $1.2B and disciplined CAPEXPublished status: Broken
Operating margin near 14.9%Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to about $2.99 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Allegiant Travel Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk airline recovery and integration story, not yet a steady compounder. The thesis is in watch mode: recent signals have turned mildly favorable, while financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Allegiant Travel Company

ALGT screens cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the valuation reflects weak expectations. The valuation signal is only medium-confidence; the evidence does not specify what earnings or merger benefits the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results may remain uneven, given erratic earnings surprises and a sector backdrop marked as a headwind. On the multi-year view, the Sun Country integration is on track, margins have improved, and liquidity has risen, although the evidence also flags high overall risk.

What Allegiant Travel Company hinges on

The key swing factor is whether ALGT continues delivering merger synergies and operating improvements without cutting guidance. Strong results and higher guidance from airline bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it; the recent acquisition agreement and financial-obligation filing add context, but their details are not provided.