Surf Air Mobility Inc (SRFM)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$0.61-2.45%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA loss narrows to $40M-$50M in 2026: FY26 EBITDA loss guided to -$25M to -$30M (mid -$27.5M) vs target -$40M to -$50M.
Surf Air aims to grow revenue 20% to 30% in 2026. It plans to cut losses to about $45 million. The company leads in hybrid-electric regional air travel. New deals and tech could boost its future.
The company lost money and faces cost problems. Revenue growth is uncertain. Recent share sales and debt raise risk. The market is weak for airlines now.
The market expects about 32% revenue growth. Our fair value is near $2.56. The stock is cheap versus peers but still risky due to losses.
Breaks if: Losses exceed $50 million in FY26
Breaks if: Company issues new dilutive equity or large debt in next 12 months
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with an emphasis on revenue growth and loss reduction. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to recent earnings misses and elevated risk levels.
Valuation suggests that SRFM is considered cheap compared to its peers, with a significant expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a cautious outlook, reflecting the company's recent struggles.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth and loss reduction goals, which could improve fundamentals over the multi-year horizon. However, the company has a high probability of missing earnings expectations, which adds to the uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether SRFM can maintain its growth trajectory and improve profitability while navigating sector headwinds. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and management's ability to execute on its priorities.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'high'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company achieved revenue growth at the high end of its target. However, it also reported a significant earnings miss in its latest release. This mixed performance creates uncertainty about future expectations.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $105 million in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, SRFM's performance will depend on its execution and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.