Reading SPNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPNT free→Reading SPNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPNT free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence SPNT's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 SPNT trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.67 → $0.65 (-4.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$285.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,628.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the company's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
This information shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, or incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
EWBC East West Bancorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
CG Carlyle Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | full | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
UNM Unum | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | full | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing the quality of underwriting earnings to drive profitability.
Aim to increase the diluted book value per share to enhance shareholder value.
Continue efforts to boost operating earnings per share to improve financial performance.
Why it matters: Growth in book value shows the company's financial strength. It is a key management priority.
Confirms:Diluted book value per share increases by more than 5% quarter over quarter.
Disproves:Diluted book value per share decreases or grows less than 1% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: A lower combined ratio means better underwriting performance. This helps the company make more money.
Confirms:Q2 combined ratio is below 88.9%. This shows better underwriting.
Disproves:Q2 combined ratio is above 90%. This shows underwriting problems.
Why it matters: Growth in gross written premiums signals strong demand for insurance products. This is vital for revenue growth.
Confirms:Q2 gross written premiums increase by more than 8% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 gross written premiums decline or grow less than 1% year over year.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can mean the economy is weak. This can hurt the financial sector.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: Growth in operating earnings per share shows the company's ability to improve profits. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 operating earnings per share is over $0.70. This shows continued growth.
Disproves:Q2 operating earnings per share is below $0.60. This shows profit struggles.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 16, 2026, SiriusPoint Ltd. filed a Current Report on Form 8-K announcing the departure of Mr. Rob Gibbs, President & Chief Executive Officer of SiriusPoint International Insurance Corporation (publ) (“SiriusPoint International”). On March 17, 2026, SiriusPoint International and Mr. Gibbs entered into a Settlement Agreement (“Settlement Agre…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 30, 2026, SiriusPoint Ltd. (“Company”) announced the appointment of Sabra R. Purtill to serve on the Board of Directors of the Company, effective March 25, 2026. As a Class I director, she will hold office for a term equal to the remaining term of the Class I directors ( i.e., the upcoming annual general meeting of shareholders of the Compa…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 16, 2026, SiriusPoint Ltd. (“Company”) announced changes to its business structure under which it will now operate through four business areas, including three globally focused areas: Global Property & Casualty Programs, Global Reinsurance, Global Accident & Health, and a London Market Specialty division, which includes Lloyd’s. As part of…
This information shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, or incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.