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NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$331.28+3.72%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Diversified
- Market cap
- $859.37B
- Employees
- 318,512
- IPO date
- 1969-09-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-14
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $331.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$297.71consensus
Range $265.15 – $310.35
vs price: +11% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$358.18consensus
Range $322.45 – $388.97
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $320 JPM trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 14× p/e peer median. Our $291 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $295–$361. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.5x
peer 14.4x · own history 12.3x
Premium
1.1x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
10%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$290.79
range $271.81 – $306.50
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 10% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
59th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -1.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
4th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish15 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $5.38 → $5.39 (+0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$236.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,547.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for CET1 capital ratio to remain above 14.3%
Why it matters: A stable or rising CET1 capital ratio shows good capital management. It also shows financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:CET1 capital ratio is above 14.3%.
Disproves:CET1 capital ratio is below 14.3%.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-151d agoYahoo! Finance
Links security lending to potential valuation upside.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BAC, WFC, and C keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting JPM and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If JPM beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +8% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on JPM and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like BAC, WFC, and C start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping JPM and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits JPM and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 3.03
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On May 7, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (the “Company”) issued 300,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s 6.100% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series PP, par value of $1.00 per share and with a liquidation preference of $10,000 per share (the “Series PP Preferred Stock”), which Shares were deposited against delivery of depositary receipts (the “Depositary Receipts”) evidencing 3,000,000 depositary shares (the “Depositary…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.