JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$339.72+1.25%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge JPMorgan Chase’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

25.16 → 25.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend rises to $1.65 and $50B share buyback starts	It raised dividends and started a $50B share buyback program.	Intact	Dividend cut or buyback canceled after 2026-Q3	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2 and reiterated in 2026-Q3. Dividend per share increased from $1.50 to $1.65, and a new $50B share repurchase program was authorized effective July 1, 2026. The firm executed $664 million in repurchases in 2026-Q3, showing initial deployment of the program. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
CET1 capital ratio stays near 14.3% and excess HQLA above $270B	The bank keeps strong capital with CET1 near 14.3% and high liquidity.	Intact	CET1 falls below 14.3% or excess HQLA below $270B in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. CET1 capital ratio remained strong, above 14%, with CET1 capital increasing from $287B in 2025-Q3 to $303B in 2026-Q2. The firm maintained robust liquidity and capital, delivering on the fortress balance sheet commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net income grows to at least $16.5B in 2026-Q1	JPMorgan grows net income from $14.4B to $16.5B in 2026-Q1.	Intact	net income falls below $16.5B in 2026-Q1	Net income: $21.155B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=16.5 billion USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202621,155,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a3a87bdd-f88b-470f-b1ef-8c98fb4de522. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net income grew from $14.4B in 2025-Q3 to $15.8B in 2026-Q3, and revenue increased from $47.1B to $50.9B over the same period. Management consistently emphasized growth across all segments, and financial results show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income rises to at least $20.5B in 2026-Q1	Operating income rose from $18.7B to $20.5B in the same period.	Intact	operating income falls below $20.5B in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $27.516B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20.5 billion USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202627,516,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$25.42

$24.66 → $25.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$215.88B

$211.36B → $215.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$24.66	$211,356,840,520	14 / 11
2026-07-25	$24.95	$211,814,947,880	14 / 9
2026-07-26	$24.95	$211,814,947,880	14 / 9
2026-07-27	$24.74	$211,789,899,170	13 / 11
2026-07-28	$24.74	$211,789,899,170	13 / 11
2026-07-29	$24.80	$212,453,535,530	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$24.95	$212,076,487,768	13 / 9
2026-07-31	$24.80	$212,453,535,530	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-02	$24.80	$212,453,535,530	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-04	$24.80	$212,453,535,530	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-06	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-07	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-08	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-09	$25.01	$213,200,710,620	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-12	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-13	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-14	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-15	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-16	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-17	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-18	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-19	$24.99	$212,431,698,295	12 / 9
2026-08-20	$25.12	$212,983,678,081	11 / 9
2026-08-21	$25.12	$212,983,678,081	11 / 9
2026-08-22	$25.12	$212,983,678,081	11 / 9
2026-08-23	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-24	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-25	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-26	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-27	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-28	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-29	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-30	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-08-31	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-01	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-02	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-03	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-04	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-05	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-06	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-07	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-08	$25.12	$212,982,322,918	11 / 9
2026-09-09	$25.14	$213,247,569,938	11 / 9
2026-09-10	$25.16	$213,153,359,517	11 / 9
2026-09-11	$25.16	$213,153,359,517	11 / 9
2026-09-12	$25.16	$213,153,359,517	12 / 9
2026-09-13	$25.16	$213,153,359,517	12 / 9
2026-09-14	$25.16	$213,153,359,517	12 / 9
2026-09-15	$25.16	$213,153,359,517	12 / 9
2026-09-16	$25.16	$213,153,359,517	12 / 9
2026-09-17	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-18	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-19	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-20	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-21	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-22	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-23	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-24	$25.16	$213,158,060,728	12 / 9
2026-09-25	$25.15	$213,158,060,728	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$25.14	$213,259,392,307	11 / 9
2026-09-27	$25.14	$213,273,738,195	12 / 9
2026-09-28	$25.14	$213,273,738,195	12 / 9
2026-09-29	$25.16	$213,538,899,232	12 / 9
2026-09-30	$25.20	$213,761,829,275	12 / 9
2026-10-01	$25.20	$213,759,372,916	13 / 10
2026-10-02	$25.20	$213,865,710,632	13 / 10
2026-10-03	$25.21	$213,934,605,369	13 / 10
2026-10-04	$25.21	$213,934,605,369	13 / 10
2026-10-05	$25.21	$213,934,605,369	13 / 10
2026-10-06	$25.21	$214,300,185,334	13 / 10
2026-10-07	$25.22	$214,300,185,334	13 / 10
2026-10-08	$25.22	$214,300,185,334	13 / 11
2026-10-09	$25.28	$214,534,364,281	13 / 11
2026-10-10	$25.28	$214,534,364,281	13 / 11
2026-10-11	$25.28	$214,534,364,281	13 / 11
2026-10-12	$25.28	$214,534,364,281	13 / 11
2026-10-13	$25.28	$214,534,364,281	13 / 11
2026-10-14	$25.35	$215,482,813,018	13 / 11
2026-10-15	$25.42	$215,878,045,783	14 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	12	0
2026-06-01	12	12	0
2026-07-01	13	12	0
2026-08-01	13	11	1
2026-09-01	13	11	1
2026-10-01	14	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 14 · prior Jul 15

$352.00 → $361.00+2.6%

Robert W. BairdOct 14 · prior Jul 15

$305.00 → $312.00+2.3%

Morgan StanleyOct 14 · prior Jul 15

$370.00 → $377.00+1.9%

BarclaysOct 14 · prior Jul 15

$420.00 → $425.00+1.2%

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jul 14

$418.00 → $392.00-6.2%

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 3

$400.00 → $395.00-1.2%

$0$233.75$467.50

4 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend rises to $1.65 and $50B share buyback startsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
CET1 capital ratio stays near 14.3% and excess HQLA above $270BDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net income grows to at least $16.5B in 2026-Q1Net income: $21.155B
Operating income rises to at least $20.5B in 2026-Q1Operating income: $27.516B

Next proof point

Jan 14, 2027

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

JPMorgan Chase outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance and management priorities aimed at increasing net income and maintaining a strong capital position.

What's priced into JPMorgan Chase

The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility due to weak execution quality, with a slight premium compared to peers. The expectations gap is minimal, suggesting that the current valuation reflects a justified stance given the company's fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to increase net income and revenue growth, as evidenced by strong recent financial results. However, the risk profile has shifted to moderate, indicating potential challenges ahead, especially given the mixed performance of industry peers.

What JPMorgan Chase hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like Bank of America, HSBC, and Wells Fargo. If these companies continue to show strong earnings, it could support JPM's performance; conversely, any negative guidance from them could weigh on JPM's momentum.