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NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$1052.83+0.96%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Market cap
- $168.06B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1999-10-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-21
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1052.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$678.77consensus
Range $580.97 – $855.20
vs price: +55% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$1229.45consensus
Range $795.80 – $1829.70
vs price: -14% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $1,044 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $660 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $1,140–$1,393. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.6x
peer 14.9x · own history 23.3x
Premium
1.6x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
58%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$659.82
range $570.71 – $829.22
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 58% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
88th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.65x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
15th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish11 analysts, 82% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $12.53 → $12.53 (-0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.2% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$263.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,242.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for quarterly net inflows exceeding $130 billion
Why it matters: Strong inflows show that clients trust BlackRock. This helps grow their asset management business.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Total net inflows for the quarter are over $130 billion. This shows strong demand for products.
Disproves:Net inflows drop below $100 billion. This suggests clients are less interested.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-161d agoInvesting.com
Launch of new ETF aligns with growth strategy.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BX, KKR, and APO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting BLK and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BLK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-15), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BLK cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-15), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on BLK and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like BX, KKR, and APO start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping BLK and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-142mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 14, 2026, BlackRock, Inc. (the “Company”) reported results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release issued by the Company is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.