BlackRock (BLK)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$1134.38+1.21%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BlackRock’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

64.46 → 64.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective management of private credit capabilities	A supporting condition in BlackRock's published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership and no major valuation issues in private credit.	Under Pressure	Further CEO departures or valuation probes in private credit	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management reiterated the $400 billion private markets fundraising goal by 2030, with $68 billion raised in the last twelve months as of 2026-Q3. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward this multi-year strategic growth target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Private markets fundraising reaches $400B by 2030	BlackRock is growing private markets fundraising toward $400 billion by 2030.	Intact	Private markets fundraising falls below $300 billion by 2030	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management reiterated the $400 billion private markets fundraising goal by 2030, with $68 billion raised in the last twelve months as of 2026-Q3. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward this multi-year strategic growth target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Technology services and subscription revenue grows 22% YoY	Technology services revenue grew 22% last year, driven by Aladdin and acquisitions.	Intact	Technology services revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Technology services and subscription revenue grew by 14% year-over-year in 2026-Q3, supported by Aladdin and multi-product solutions momentum. The trajectory shows consistent delivery of growth aligned with management's emphasis. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$64.68

$64.14 → $64.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$32.59B

$32.53B → $32.59B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$64.14	$32,526,510,140	16 / 9
2026-07-25	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-07-26	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-07-27	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-07-28	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-07-29	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-07-30	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-07-31	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-08-01	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-08-02	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-08-03	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-08-04	$64.37	$32,649,843,470	16 / 9
2026-08-05	$64.11	$32,649,843,470	17 / 9
2026-08-06	$64.11	$32,649,843,470	17 / 9
2026-08-07	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-08	$64.11	$32,649,843,470	17 / 9
2026-08-09	$64.11	$32,649,843,470	17 / 9
2026-08-10	$64.11	$32,649,843,470	17 / 9
2026-08-11	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$64.15	$32,649,843,470	17 / 9
2026-08-13	$64.15	$32,649,843,470	17 / 9
2026-08-14	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-15	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-16	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-19	$64.50	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-20	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-21	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-22	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-23	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-24	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-25	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-26	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-27	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-28	$64.60	$32,384,825,825	9 / 8
2026-08-29	$64.60	$32,415,173,627	9 / 8
2026-08-30	$64.60	$32,415,173,627	9 / 8
2026-08-31	$64.60	$32,415,173,627	9 / 8
2026-09-01	$64.60	$32,415,173,627	9 / 8
2026-09-02	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-03	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-04	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-05	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-06	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-07	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-08	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-09	$64.43	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-10	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-11	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-12	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-13	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-14	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-15	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-16	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-17	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-18	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-19	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-20	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-21	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-22	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-23	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-24	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-25	$64.46	$32,494,325,825	9 / 8
2026-09-26	$64.43	$32,480,814,204	9 / 8
2026-09-27	$64.43	$32,480,814,204	9 / 8
2026-09-28	$64.43	$32,480,814,204	9 / 8
2026-09-29	$64.43	$32,480,814,204	9 / 8
2026-09-30	$64.43	$32,480,814,204	9 / 8
2026-10-01	$64.43	$32,480,814,204	9 / 8
2026-10-02	$64.43	$32,480,814,204	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$64.45	$32,478,028,573	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$64.45	$32,478,028,573	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$64.45	$32,478,028,573	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$64.36	$32,475,053,577	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$64.44	$32,518,515,115	9 / 8
2026-10-08	$64.31	$32,472,682,566	9 / 8
2026-10-09	$64.20	$32,441,144,104	10 / 8
2026-10-10	$64.20	$32,441,144,104	10 / 8
2026-10-11	$64.20	$32,441,144,104	10 / 8
2026-10-12	$64.20	$32,441,144,104	10 / 8
2026-10-13	$64.17	$32,425,820,525	10 / 8
2026-10-14	$64.14	$32,388,359,756	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$64.68	$32,593,682,198	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	3
2026-06-01	14	3
2026-07-01	15	3
2026-08-01	15	2
2026-09-01	16	2
2026-10-01	17	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades13 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 13 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 15 · prior Oct 8

$1230.00 → $1250.00+1.6%

UBSOct 15 · prior Oct 7

$1277.00 → $1300.00+1.8%

Truist FinancialOct 15

$1310.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 15 · prior Oct 7

$1420.00 → $1410.00-0.7%

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior Sep 25

$1479.00 → $1468.00-0.7%

Evercore ISIOct 9 · prior Aug 10

$1260.00 → $1275.00+1.2%

$0$813.45$1626.90

3 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective management of private credit capabilitiesPublished status: Under Pressure
Private markets fundraising reaches $400B by 2030Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Technology services and subscription revenue grows 22% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BlackRock outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state remains intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite a medium confidence level.

What's priced into BlackRock

The market appears to be pricing in an expensive valuation, with a premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that investors may anticipate continued strong performance, but the fragility of earnings quality could impact future results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like organic base fee growth and increasing technology services revenue. However, the fragile earnings quality and moderate risk suggest that performance could be affected by external factors.

What BlackRock hinges on

The thesis hinges on several key scenarios, including potential guidance changes from management and the impact of Federal Reserve rate decisions. Additionally, performance of sector bellwethers could influence overall market sentiment toward BlackRock.