Reading TPG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPG free→Reading TPG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPG free→NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 100% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact TPG's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $43 TPG trades at 30× p/e — 2.0× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $22 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $47–$61. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 100% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 6.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.64 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$427.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,480.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect TPG's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector falls below its median level.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median level.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TPG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 incorporated in this Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information or Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$47.00 – $61.00 (median $59.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TPG TPG Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
TPG has entered into a strategic investment management partnership with Jackson Financial.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. TPG announced a strategic partnership with Jackson Financial to manage select assets. This partnership is expected to be accretive to Fee Related Earnings per share beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026. The trajectory is yet to be determined as this is a newly stated priority.
“TPG announced a strategic partnership with Jackson Financial to manage select assets.”
TPG completed an offering of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of debt.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. TPG completed an offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of debt. This capital allocation move is aimed at strengthening the company's financial position. The trajectory is yet to be determined as this is a newly stated priority.
“TPG completed an offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of debt.”
TPG aims to deliver long-term growth and differentiated value for stakeholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. TPG's revenue decreased from $1,491 million in 2025-Q4 to $500 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in delivering growth. Despite management's confidence, the financial trajectory shows a decline in revenue, suggesting challenges in achieving long-term growth and value delivery.
“TPG is confident in its positioning to deliver long-term growth and value.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As part of TPG Inc.’s (the “Company”) previously disclosed long-term corporate governance transition to oversight by a majority independent board, on April 8, 2026, the board of directors of the Company (the “Board”) increased the size of the Board from thirteen to fourteen members and appointed Admiral William H. McRaven as an independent director…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information required by this
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On February 26, 2026, TPG Inc. (the “Company”), TPG Operating Group I, L.P., TPG Operating Group III, L.P. and TPG Holdings II Sub, L.P., each indirect subsidiaries of the Company (together with the Company, the “Guarantors”), and TPG Operating Group II, L.P., an indirect subsidiary of the Company (the “Issuer”), completed an offering of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of…
and Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 incorporated in this Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information or Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
“Our scale and diversification position us well to deliver accelerated growth.”