Reading ARES? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARES free→Reading ARES? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARES free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If ARES cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $135.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for ARES right now, so treat our $74 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $140–$173. Not investment advice.
$140.00 – $173.00 (median $155.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 83% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.33 → $1.35 (+0.9% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$153.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$433.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,904.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong fundraising shows investor demand and supports growth. It can boost confidence in future earnings.
Confirms:Q2 fundraising results are over $30 billion. This shows strong demand continues.
Disproves:Q2 fundraising results are under $20 billion. This shows weaker interest from investors.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Maintain dividend payouts
Concerns about dividend sustainability could impact payouts.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 21, 2026, Ares Holdings L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Ares Holdings” or the “Borrower”) and certain subsidiaries of Ares Management Corporation (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 14 (the “Credit Facility Amendment”) to the Sixth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of April 21, 2014 (as amended through and including the Credit Facility Amendment, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Borrower, the guarantors pa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARES Ares Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
21 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ares aims to achieve strong fundraising levels, potentially matching or exceeding previous records.
Ares aims to generate over $350 million in realized net performance income for the full year 2026.
Ares is committed to maintaining its dividend payouts, with recent increases reflecting strong financial performance.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows commitment to shareholders and helps stock price.
Confirms:Quarterly dividend remains at $1.35 per share, confirming strong cash flow.
Disproves:The dividend payout is cut or lowered. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Higher AUM growth reflects strong investor confidence and business expansion. It supports future revenue growth.
Confirms:AUM growth exceeds 18% year over year.
Disproves:AUM growth is under 10% year over year. This shows challenges in gathering assets.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows good investment performance. It can affect future earnings.
Confirms:Net performance income exceeds $350 million for the quarter.
Disproves:Net performance income is under $250 million. This shows weaker returns on investments.
Advances: Achieve strong fundraising levels
Acquisition enhances fundraising capabilities and growth potential.
Advances: Generate over $350 million in net performance income
Sale of stake generates significant performance income.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 1, 2026, the registrant issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and shall not be de…
Regulation FD Disclosure . On May 1, 2026, the registrant issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share of its Class A common stock, payable on June 30, 2026 to its Class A common stockholders of record as of June 16, 2026. The registrant also issued a detailed earnings presentation announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The text of the press release and earnings presentation is included as Exhibit 99.1 and E…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 27, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Ares Holdings L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Ares Holdings” or the “Borrower”) and certain subsidiaries of Ares Management Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), by and among Ares Holdings, as borrower, the subsidiaries of the Company party thereto, as guarantors, the lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, that provides a…