Ares Management (ARES)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$112.27-1.54%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ares Management’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.28 → 7.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or increase dividend payouts at $1.35 per share	Dividends rose from $1.12 to $1.35 per share, showing steady payouts.	Broken	dividend per share falls below $1.35 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $1.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.35 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20261.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 878ae56e-0d1e-4e02-8969-bea40a3233f2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Quarterly dividends increased from $0.93 in 2024-Q3/Q4 to $1.12 in 2025-Q1 through Q3, then to $1.35 in 2026-Q1 and Q2, reflecting a 20% increase announced in 2025-Q4. Management has consistently maintained and grown dividends, delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain strong fundraising revenue near $1.3 billion in Q1 2026	Ares aims to keep strong fundraising, shown by $1.3 billion revenue in Q1 2026.	Broken	fundraising revenue falls below $1.3 billion in Q1 2026	Revenue: $1.294B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20261,293,657,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 878ae56e-0d1e-4e02-8969-bea40a3233f2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Fundraising reached $30 billion in 2026-Q1 and increased to over $36 billion in 2026-Q2, with year-over-year growth exceeding 45% in Q1. Management consistently emphasizes record fundraising and broad investor demand, and the trajectory is delivering with sequential quarterly growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Generate over $350 million in net performance income in 2026	It targets over $350 million in net performance income for 2026.	Intact	net performance income falls below $350 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 8 quarters. Management expects over $350 million in realized net performance income for full year 2026, with Q2 2026 preliminarily exceeding $50 million. The guidance has been consistent since 2025-Q4 and remains on track, indicating delivery aligned with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expand partnerships and acquisitions to boost fundraising	A supporting condition in Ares Management's published investment case. The stated target is Continue deals like Clearstream and pipeline acquisitions.	Intact	No new partnerships or acquisitions in next 4 quarters	Qualitative: Active M&A pipeline vs Target: Continue deals News confirms new logistics venture and potential Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners deal, reinforcing the M&A and partnership driver. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.18

$7.27 → $7.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.76B

$5.87B → $6.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.27	$5,867,739,830	17 / 6
2026-07-25	$7.27	$5,867,739,830	17 / 6
2026-07-26	$7.27	$5,867,739,830	17 / 6
2026-07-27	$7.31	$6,762,318,304	12 / 5
2026-07-28	$7.22	$5,809,670,400	15 / 5
2026-07-29	$7.22	$5,809,670,400	15 / 5
2026-07-30	$7.22	$5,809,670,400	15 / 5
2026-07-31	$7.22	$5,809,670,400	15 / 5
2026-08-01	$7.22	$5,809,670,400	15 / 5
2026-08-02	$7.21	$5,801,650,400	15 / 5
2026-08-03	$7.21	$5,801,650,400	15 / 5
2026-08-04	$7.20	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-05	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-06	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-07	$7.29	$6,740,896,110	11 / 5
2026-08-08	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-09	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-10	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-11	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-12	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-13	$7.19	$5,811,965,400	15 / 5
2026-08-14	$7.29	$6,740,896,110	11 / 5
2026-08-15	$7.29	$6,740,896,110	11 / 5
2026-08-16	$7.29	$6,740,896,110	11 / 5
2026-08-17	$7.29	$6,740,896,110	11 / 5
2026-08-18	$7.29	$6,740,896,110	11 / 5
2026-08-19	$7.29	$6,740,896,110	11 / 5
2026-08-20	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-21	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-22	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-23	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-24	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-25	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-26	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-27	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-28	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-29	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-30	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-08-31	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-01	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-02	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-03	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-04	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-05	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-06	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-07	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-08	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-09	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-10	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-11	$7.28	$6,355,116,991	11 / 5
2026-09-12	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-13	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-14	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-15	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-16	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-17	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-18	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-19	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-20	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-21	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-22	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-23	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-24	$7.28	$6,456,469,822	11 / 5
2026-09-25	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-09-26	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-09-27	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-09-28	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-09-29	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-09-30	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-10-01	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-10-02	$7.27	$6,554,431,276	12 / 5
2026-10-03	$7.26	$6,639,377,367	13 / 6
2026-10-04	$7.26	$6,639,377,367	13 / 6
2026-10-05	$7.24	$6,639,377,367	13 / 6
2026-10-06	$7.23	$6,639,377,367	13 / 6
2026-10-07	$7.22	$6,621,902,367	13 / 6
2026-10-08	$7.22	$6,621,902,367	13 / 6
2026-10-09	$7.22	$6,621,902,367	13 / 6
2026-10-10	$7.22	$6,621,902,367	13 / 6
2026-10-11	$7.22	$6,616,139,867	13 / 6
2026-10-12	$7.22	$6,616,139,867	13 / 6
2026-10-13	$7.21	$6,616,139,867	13 / 6
2026-10-14	$7.18	$6,764,954,163	13 / 5
2026-10-15	$7.18	$6,764,954,163	13 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	6
2026-06-01	12	6
2026-07-01	12	7
2026-08-01	11	7
2026-09-01	12	7
2026-10-01	13	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 1

$136.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 24

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$82.50$165.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend payouts at $1.35 per sharePublished status: Broken
Maintain strong fundraising revenue near $1.3 billion in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Generate over $350 million in net performance income in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ares Management outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ARES represents a financial services investment with a focus on fundraising and performance income. The current thesis state is cautious, reflecting mixed results and a volatile management track record.

What's priced into Ares Management

The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, but there is a notable expectations gap. ARES trades at a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may have high expectations for future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with strong fundraising and maintaining dividend payouts, which are positive signs. However, the mixed outlook on net performance income and recent financial performance suggests that fundamentals may not improve significantly in the near term.

What Ares Management hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on ARES's ability to meet performance income targets and the broader financial sector's performance. Key triggers include guidance updates from management and the actions of sector leaders like BLK, BX, and KKR.