Reading BEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BEN free→Reading BEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BEN free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BEN is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. If BEN cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 BEN trades at 21× p/e — 1.4× the 15× p/e peer median, and above its own 10× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $23 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $26–$34. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 39% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.64 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.6% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$284.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,921.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues its growth trend. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Earnings per share exceeds $0.49, showing growth compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Earnings per share falls below $0.46, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BEN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, Western Asset Management Company, LLC (“Western Asset”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Franklin Resources, Inc., received notifications of investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice (the “DOJ”) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) regarding alleged violations of certain laws related to trade allocations by Ken Leech, the former co-Chief Investment Officer of Western Asset. The DOJ has notified Western Asset that it is no longer…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$26.00 – $34.00 (median $31.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BEN Franklin Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · 5.4% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering earnings growth through diversified global platforms and positive net flows.
Expand the share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
Commit to consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show confidence in the company's finances. They can help stock prices.
Confirms:The company announced it will increase its share buyback program.
Disproves:There is no increase in share buyback authorization. The current program may be reduced.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Franklin Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company’s second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 30, 2026, Franklin Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company’s first fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) At the annual meeting of stockholders of Franklin Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) held on February 3, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”), the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment and restatement of the Company's 1998 Employee Stock Investment Plan ("ESIP"), to increase the number of shares of common stock, par value $0.10 per share, of the Com…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Joinder and Commitment Increase Agreement On December 11, 2025, Franklin Resources, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Joinder and Commitment Increase Agreement (the “Joinder Agreement”), by and among the Company, as borrower, Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Royal Bank of Canada, The Bank of New York Mellon, each of the other Lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, which amends the Amended and Restated…