Franklin Resources (BEN)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$30.98-1.27%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Franklin Resources’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividends at $0.33 per share	The company keeps dividends steady at $0.33 per share.	Intact	Dividends fall below $0.33 per share	Dividend per share: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.33 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.33 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b937117b-0c10-450e-8eeb-258ca52cc17b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share increased modestly from $0.32 in 2025-Q1 to $0.33 in 2026-Q2, reflecting management's consistent commitment to maintaining and growing dividends. The trajectory matches management's stated priority of returning capital steadily to shareholders. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS near $0.49 next quarter	Earnings per share beat estimates by 29% last quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.49 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $0.31 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.49. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20260.31 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b937117b-0c10-450e-8eeb-258ca52cc17b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $2.295 billion next quarter	Franklin Resources grows revenue about 9% year over year.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.064 billion next quarter	Revenue: $2.358B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.295 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20262,358,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b937117b-0c10-450e-8eeb-258ca52cc17b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Progress on share buybacks with $67 million repurchased	Share buybacks are authorized to enhance shareholder value.	Intact	No meaningful share repurchases progress beyond $67 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	5	4
2026-06-01	3	6	3
2026-07-01	3	6	2
2026-08-01	3	6	2
2026-09-01	3	7	2
2026-10-01	4	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7

$40.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 25 · prior Jun 26

$34.00 → $35.00+2.9%

$0$22.00$44.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividends at $0.33 per shareDividend per share: $0.33 per share
EPS near $0.49 next quarterDiluted EPS: $0.31 per share
Revenue grows to about $2.295 billion next quarterRevenue: $2.358B
Progress on share buybacks with $67 million repurchasedDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Franklin Resources outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through diversification and alternatives. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance despite some volatility in management execution.

What's priced into Franklin Resources

The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with the market pricing in a slight expectations gap. The current premium reflects the company's recent performance and the market's cautious optimism about its growth strategy.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may continue to show strength in assets under management and dividend growth, but rising operating expenses could pressure margins. Management's focus on expense discipline is behind schedule, which could impact future performance.

What Franklin Resources hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to drive growth while controlling costs. Additionally, sector performance, particularly from major players like BLK, BX, and KKR, will be crucial for BEN's momentum in the financials sector.

Bottom line

Overall, BEN's performance is solid, but it faces risks from expense management and sector headwinds. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.