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BNY Mellon (BNY)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$142.53-1.01%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from BNY and the performance of sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and WFC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Diversified
- Market cap
- $98.82B
- Employees
- 48,100
- IPO date
- 2007-08-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-21
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $142.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$103.52consensus
Range $79.58 – $117.82
vs price: +38% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$141.21consensus
Range $132.42 – $151.39
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $144 BNY trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $106 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $136–$149. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.8x
peer 14.9x · own history —
Premium
1.2x peer
Growth the price needs
36%
our forecast -26%
Our fair value
$106.03
range $79.65 – $119.47
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
(median $142.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-17
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
61st pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
12th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish8 analysts, 53% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.16 → $2.17 (+0.3% / 30d). 5 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$201.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,015.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose to expensive. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact BNY Mellon's performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BNY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and WFC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting BNY and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BNY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BNY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and WFC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping BNY and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on BNY and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+12 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.