Reading OWL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OWL free→Reading OWL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OWL free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.62 OWL trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $13 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $9.50–$12. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.22 (-0.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$183.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$477.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,853.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OWL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Blue Owl Capital Inc. (the “Company”) reported its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the Company’s press release and earnings presentation are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The Company is making references to non-GAAP financial information in the earnings presentation and will also make references to non-GAAP financial informati…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$9.50 – $12.00 (median $10.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OWL Blue Owl Capital Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company announced dividends of $0.23 and $0.225 per Class A Share in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4, respectively. This consistent dividend payment reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, delivering on shareholder returns.
“The Company announced a cash dividend of $0.23 per Class A Share.”
“The Company announced a cash dividend of $0.225 per Class A Share.”
Maintain stable operating income levels despite revenue fluctuations.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $95.8M in 2026-Q1, $167.8M in 2025-Q4, and $55.3M in 2025-Q3. Despite revenue fluctuations, the company has maintained stable operating income, indicating effective cost management and operational stability.
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, the Company announced a cash dividend of $0.23 per Class A Share. The dividend is payable on May 27, 2026, to holders of record as of the close of business on May 13, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Blue Owl Capital Inc. (the “Company”) reported its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. Copies of the Company’s press release and earnings presentation are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The Company is making references to non-GAAP financial information in the earnings presentation and will also make references to non-GAAP financial info…
Other Events. On February 5, 2026, the Company announced a cash dividend of $0.225 per Class A Share. The dividend is payable on March 2, 2026, to holders of record as of the close of business on February 20, 2026.
Other Events. During the month of November through today, an aggregate of over $200 million in shares of the common stock of Blue Owl Capital Inc. (“Blue Owl”, NYSE: OWL), Blue Owl Capital Corporation (“OBDC”, NYSE: OBDC) and Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (“OTF”, NYSE: OTF) were purchased by Blue Owl executives and employees or were repurchased in accordance with existing share repurchase plans. For Blue Owl, in total approximately $70 million in shares of Class A common stock were purcha…
“Operating income was $95.8M.”
“Operating income was $167.8M.”
“Operating income was $55.3M.”