Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.36-3.60%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Blue Owl Capital Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.99 → 0.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	738.74M
EPS	—	0.246
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.84B
EPS	—	0.88
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.15B
EPS	—	0.978

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Insider buying signals leadership confidence	Insider buying shows confidence in leadership.	Intact	No insider buying or insider selling accelerates significantly	Insider buying confirmed (3,000 shares) vs stable target News reports President Nicholson purchased 3,000 shares of OBDC in June 2026, signaling strong insider confidence. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating income near $95.8M in Q1 2026	Blue Owl Capital keeps stable operating income near $95.8M in Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $55M in any quarter next year	Operating income: $116.411M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=95.8 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 2026116,411,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income declined from $95.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $70.9 million in 2026-Q2, indicating some volatility despite management's emphasis on stability. The trajectory shows limited progress in maintaining stable operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Limit revenue decline to less than -32% in next fiscal year	A primary condition in Blue Owl Capital Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline > -32% next fiscal year.	Intact	Revenue decline exceeds -40% next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.98

$0.98 → $0.98 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.15B

$3.16B → $3.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.98	$3,156,114,860	16 / 10
2026-07-25	$0.98	$3,156,114,860	16 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.98	$3,156,114,860	16 / 10
2026-07-27	$0.98	$3,148,605,964	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.98	$3,148,605,964	9 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.98	$3,156,114,860	16 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.98	$3,154,626,890	16 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.98	$3,145,805,964	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.98	$3,145,805,964	9 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.99	$3,135,777,510	16 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.99	$3,135,777,510	16 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.99	$3,135,777,510	16 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.99	$3,135,777,510	16 / 10
2026-08-09	$0.99	$3,135,777,510	16 / 10
2026-08-10	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.99	$3,120,006,028	9 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.99	$3,140,589,088	9 / 8
2026-08-21	$0.99	$3,140,589,088	9 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-23	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-24	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-25	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.99	$3,129,841,228	9 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.99	$3,152,477,690	9 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.99	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$0.99	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$0.99	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$0.98	$3,153,201,023	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$0.98	$3,150,406,157	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$0.98	$3,150,406,157	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-17	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-18	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-21	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-22	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-23	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9
2026-10-24	$0.98	$3,149,913,074	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	6	0
2026-06-01	9	6	0
2026-07-01	9	7	0
2026-08-01	10	7	1
2026-09-01	10	7	1
2026-10-01	11	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 1

$10.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$5.50$11.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain operating income near $95.8M in Q1 2026Operating income: $116.411M
Limit revenue decline to less than -32% in next fiscal yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Blue Owl Capital Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OWL is a financials business with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance, making this a growth-oriented multi-year thesis rather than a turnaround. The thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution has been mixed.

What's priced into Blue Owl Capital Inc

The valuation evidence is mixed: OWL is described as expensive overall, while one comparison indicates it is cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, and priced-in fragility is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, AUM growth is on track, rising from $315 billion in the first quarter of 2026 to $319 billion in the second, while operating income fell over the same period. Management maintained the quarterly dividend, but progress on operating income stability is limited; near-term miss risk is rated low, with a caution about the industry's history of misses.

What Blue Owl Capital Inc hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued AUM growth and better operating income stability. Sector conditions are a swing factor: rate cuts could weigh on financials, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from BLK, BX, and KKR could support sector momentum. Recent agreements include both an M&A event and a direct financial obligation, but the evidence does not describe their terms or effects.