Reading CG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CG free→Reading CG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CG free→NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CG is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 CG trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $45–$67. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -7.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.92 → $0.93 (+0.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 6 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 47% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$398.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,829.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The results will show if Carlyle is on track to meet its financial targets for 2028.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 earnings report shows Distributable Earnings (DE) per share above $6.00.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 earnings report shows DE per share below $6.00.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 3, 2026, The Carlyle Group Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). As further described in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$45.00 – $67.00 (median $58.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CG Carlyle Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | full | elevated |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Carlyle aims to achieve Distributable Earnings per share of $6.00 or more by the end of 2028.
Carlyle is committed to maintaining a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share.
Carlyle aims to increase its revenue through strategic initiatives and growth plans.
Carlyle Group is focused on improving its operating income over time.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Carlyle declares a dividend of $0.35 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:Carlyle cuts the dividend below $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: This target reflects Carlyle's growth strategy and long-term value creation goals.
Confirms:Carlyle reports DE per share trending towards or above $6.00 in upcoming quarters.
Disproves:Carlyle reports DE per share below $6.00. This shows they face growth challenges.
Why it matters: The new General Counsel may change Carlyle's legal strategy. It could also affect compliance.
Confirms one read:Kate Heinzelman puts new legal strategies in place. She also improves compliance measures.
Confirms the other:There may be issues with legal rules or plans during the change.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed on December 5, 2025, Jeffrey W. Ferguson, General Counsel of The Carlyle Group Inc. (the “Company” or “Carlyle”), informed the Company of his intention to retire as General Counsel in 2026. On June 1, 2026, Carlyle announced that it had appointed Kate Heinzelman as the Company’s General Counsel, effective June 29, 2026, at w…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , The Carlyle Group Inc. issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026 . The summary press release and the earnings presentation are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Report”). The information in this Report, including the exhibits hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for pur…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 26, 2026, the Carlyle Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s growth outlook and financial objectives. In addition, the Company is posting on its website a presentation that will be used during its previously announced Shareholder Update scheduled for today, February 26, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EST. The presentation is accessible through the Events & Presentations section of the Company’s website at ir.carlyle.com. From time…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026 , The Carlyle Group Inc. issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing financial results for its fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2025 . The summary press release and the earnings presentation are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “ Report ” ). The information in this Report, including the exhibits hereto, shall not…