Carlyle Group (CG)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$38.59-1.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carlyle Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.14 → 5.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	875.58M
EPS	—	0.56
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.66B
EPS	—	3.51
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.9B
EPS	—	5.011

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Distributable Earnings per share of $6.00+	Carlyle aims to grow distributable earnings to $6.00 per share by 2028.	Improving	Distributable Earnings per share falls below $3.00 by FY28	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.35	It maintains a stable dividend of $0.35 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.35 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fa25057-6e80-48cf-95f2-33e83ee94119. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Board consistently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Dividend payments have been stable, reflecting disciplined capital allocation and delivering on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Return to positive EPS	A primary condition in Carlyle Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.87 USD per share.	Broken	EPS remains negative or below $0.50 in FY25	Diluted EPS: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.87 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fa25057-6e80-48cf-95f2-33e83ee94119. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue from depressed levels	A primary condition in Carlyle Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27	Revenue: $1.123B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 10, 20261,123,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fa25057-6e80-48cf-95f2-33e83ee94119. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.01

$5.09 → $5.01 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.90B

$4.97B → $4.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-25	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-26	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-27	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-28	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-29	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-30	$5.11	$5,138,816,402	9 / 5
2026-07-31	$5.10	$4,966,759,530	17 / 7
2026-08-01	$5.10	$4,966,759,530	17 / 7
2026-08-02	$5.10	$4,966,759,530	17 / 7
2026-08-03	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-04	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-05	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-06	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-07	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.11	$4,988,781,410	17 / 6
2026-08-10	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-11	$5.11	$4,988,781,410	17 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-13	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-16	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-17	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-18	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-19	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-20	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-21	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-22	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-23	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-24	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-25	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 5
2026-09-26	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 7
2026-10-03	$5.12	$5,036,062,824	10 / 7
2026-10-04	$5.12	$5,036,062,824	10 / 7
2026-10-05	$5.09	$5,036,062,824	10 / 7
2026-10-06	$5.08	$4,965,699,188	10 / 7
2026-10-07	$5.08	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-08	$5.07	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-09	$5.07	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-10	$5.07	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-11	$5.07	$4,962,927,540	10 / 7
2026-10-12	$5.07	$4,962,927,540	10 / 7
2026-10-13	$5.05	$4,941,482,085	10 / 7
2026-10-14	$5.02	$4,895,968,706	10 / 7
2026-10-15	$5.02	$4,895,968,706	10 / 7
2026-10-16	$5.03	$4,908,714,698	10 / 7
2026-10-17	$5.03	$4,908,714,698	10 / 7
2026-10-18	$5.03	$4,908,714,698	10 / 7
2026-10-19	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-20	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-21	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-22	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-23	$5.01	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-24	$5.01	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	8	1
2026-06-01	9	8	1
2026-07-01	9	9	1
2026-08-01	8	9	1
2026-09-01	10	9	1
2026-10-01	10	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jul 21

$57.00 → $51.00-10.5%

BarclaysOct 8 · prior Aug 6

$64.00 → $53.00-17.2%

RBC CapitalOct 5 · prior May 11

$58.00 → $48.00-17.2%

Wells FargoOct 1

$43.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$35.20$70.40

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Distributable Earnings per share of $6.00+Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend per share at $0.35Dividend per share: $0.35 per share
Return to positive EPSPublished status: Broken
Increase revenue from depressed levelsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carlyle Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CG is an elevated-risk financial business with loss-making earnings quality, weak recent performance, and a sector headwind. Its thesis is in a watch state, though the latest signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable after an August earnings beat.

What's priced into Carlyle Group

The valuation evidence is mixed: CG is described as cheap versus peers, but also carries a 0.74 premium versus peers, with a negative expectations gap. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but the evidence does not show exactly what earnings path the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, management is working toward at least $6.00 in Distributable Earnings per share by 2028, but FY 2025 was $2.18, so the goal remains a substantial execution test. Revenue fell from $1.9 billion in 2025-Q4 to $1.12 billion in 2026-Q2 despite management citing fundraising and growth momentum; the quarterly dividend has remained steady. Near term, miss risk is assessed as low, but the industry has a high miss rate and CG had a recent deep miss.

What Carlyle Group hinges on

The thesis depends on progress toward the 2028 earnings goal and whether revenue growth improves across segments. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. The evidence also flags rate cuts as a sector risk.