Carlyle Group (CG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-09
$44.11-4.00%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Return to positive EPS: EPS $0.37 vs $0.87 target.
Carlyle aims to grow distributable earnings to $6.00 per share by 2028. It maintains a stable dividend of $0.35 per share. The firm is advancing revenue growth through IPOs and strategic sales. Its valuation is cheap compared to peers with a PE of 11.7 versus 18.6.
Revenue fell sharply from $1.9 billion to $254 million in early 2026. Earnings guidance for 2026 shows a possible loss per share of -$0.37. Free cash flow yield is negative at -6%. The recent selloff and earnings miss highlight fragile fundamentals.
The price is about 0.3% below our fair value near $44, reflecting roughly 16% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, indicating the market prices in modest growth but not a full recovery.
Breaks if: Distributable Earnings per share falls below $3.00 by FY28
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in any quarter
Breaks if: EPS remains negative or below $0.50 in FY25
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround play, as CG is currently loss-making and faces elevated risks. The company is trying to improve its financial performance while also managing a stable dividend, which reflects its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
The current valuation suggests that the market views CG as expensive compared to its peers, with a premium of 0.73. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market anticipates weaker performance, as CG's recent financial results have not met industry standards.
Fundamentally, CG's trajectory shows mixed results. While there has been some progress in fee-related earnings, revenue growth across segments has declined, and the company remains below its long-term earnings target. Near-term risks are present, but the probability of a miss is relatively low.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Carlyle's distributable earnings are climbing. This supports long-term goals. Strong earnings show effective revenue growth across business segments. The company is also pursuing a significant acquisition. This could boost revenue and operating income.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27
The future of CG will depend on its ability to meet management's earnings targets and maintain dividend stability. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR will be crucial, as their results could either support or hinder CG's momentum in the Financials sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CG's performance will likely be influenced by its ability to improve financial results and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.