BNY Mellon (BNY)

NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$145.27-0.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BNY Mellon’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.25 → 10.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.72B
EPS	—	2.396
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	5.73B
EPS	—	2.435
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	22.48B
EPS	—	9.347
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	23.68B
EPS	—	10.388

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase quarterly dividend by 19% to $0.63 starting Q3 2026	A supporting condition in BNY Mellon's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.63 USD_PER_SHARE.	Intact	Dividend increase to $0.63 not approved or delayed beyond Q3 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context The supplied transcripts do not state this commitment, so quarters_stated is 0. The June 24 announcement described an intended quarterly dividend increase from $0.53 to $0.63 per share, subject to board approval; the supplied materials do not confirm payment at the increased rate, so substantive delivery is not established here. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain EPS growth to at least $2.24 in Q1 2026	A primary condition in BNY Mellon's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.24 USD_PER_SHARE.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.24 in Q1 2026	Diluted EPS: $2.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.24 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20262.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a81fd93d-46d1-42ff-a5b5-a0ecbe602b05. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied earnings quarters. Diluted EPS was $2.45 in 2026-Q2 and $2.34 in 2026-Q3, while Q3 EPS was up 24% year over year. The year-over-year earnings increase supports delivery on EPS growth, though the sequential EPS figure declined. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain revenue at or above $5.4 billion in Q1 2026	A primary condition in BNY Mellon's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.4 USD_BILLIONS.	Intact	revenue falls below $5.4 billion in Q1 2026	Revenue: $5.94B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.4 USD_BILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20265,940,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a81fd93d-46d1-42ff-a5b5-a0ecbe602b05. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.39

$10.23 → $10.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$23.68B

$23.25B → $23.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-07-25	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-07-26	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-07-27	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-07-28	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-07-29	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-07-30	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-07-31	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-08-01	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-08-02	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-08-03	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-08-04	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-08-05	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-08-06	$10.23	$23,249,671,490	13 / 11
2026-08-07	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$10.25	$23,293,318,210	13 / 11
2026-08-09	$10.25	$23,293,318,210	13 / 11
2026-08-10	$10.25	$23,293,318,210	13 / 11
2026-08-11	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$10.25	$23,293,318,210	13 / 11
2026-08-13	$10.25	$23,293,318,210	13 / 11
2026-08-14	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-16	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-17	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-18	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$10.19	$23,124,520,834	10 / 9
2026-08-20	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$10.25	$23,172,547,272	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$10.25	$23,172,334,652	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$10.26	$23,184,034,652	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$10.26	$23,184,034,652	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$10.26	$23,184,034,652	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$10.26	$23,184,034,652	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$10.26	$23,184,034,652	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$10.26	$23,204,634,652	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$10.28	$23,210,504,983	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$10.28	$23,210,504,983	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$10.27	$23,248,893,470	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$10.23	$23,238,775,883	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$10.23	$23,279,521,795	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	10 / 9
2026-10-11	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	11 / 9
2026-10-12	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	11 / 9
2026-10-13	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	11 / 9
2026-10-14	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	11 / 9
2026-10-15	$10.27	$23,303,837,995	11 / 9
2026-10-16	$10.32	$23,645,490,871	11 / 10
2026-10-17	$10.32	$23,645,490,871	11 / 10
2026-10-18	$10.34	$23,645,490,871	11 / 10
2026-10-19	$10.34	$23,645,490,871	11 / 10
2026-10-20	$10.34	$23,645,490,871	11 / 10
2026-10-21	$10.36	$23,675,358,144	12 / 10
2026-10-22	$10.39	$23,675,358,144	12 / 11
2026-10-23	$10.39	$23,675,358,144	12 / 11
2026-10-24	$10.39	$23,675,358,144	12 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	6	1
2026-06-01	8	6	1
2026-07-01	9	6	1
2026-08-01	9	6	1
2026-09-01	9	6	1
2026-10-01	9	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 16 · prior Sep 25

$172.00 → $165.00-4.1%

New StreetOct 16

$182.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jun 29

$147.00 → $152.00+3.4%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$160.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Jul 20

$158.00 → $150.00-5.1%

$0$100.10$200.20

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase quarterly dividend by 19% to $0.63 starting Q3 2026Required source inputs unavailable
Sustain EPS growth to at least $2.24 in Q1 2026Diluted EPS: $2.45 per share
Maintain revenue at or above $5.4 billion in Q1 2026Revenue: $5.94B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BNY Mellon outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BNY is a mature financial business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent momentum improving, though earnings quality is flagged as fragile and recent financial performance is neutral.

What's priced into BNY Mellon

Valuation is expensive, with BNY at a 1.2 premium versus peers and a modest expectations gap of 0.11. The evidence describes pricing as stretched, but does not show that the full combination of weak execution and turbulent conditions is already reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show year-over-year growth: third-quarter revenue rose 12% and diluted earnings per share rose 24%, although both revenue and earnings per share were slightly lower than in the prior quarter. Management is on track with its broad-based revenue growth and earnings priorities, but the proposed dividend increase is not confirmed as paid; a guidance cut is a key near-term risk, despite a low estimated chance of a miss.

What BNY Mellon hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue and earnings execution without a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts could weigh on the financial sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.