Reading BRK-B? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BRK-B free→Reading BRK-B? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BRK-B free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in interest rates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $495.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for BRK-B right now, so treat our $368 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 34% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.06 → $5.01 (-1.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$53.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$147.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $942.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed from expensive to full. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market environment. The inputs indicate that the company's earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile, which may affect future performance.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in operating earnings shows the company's core business strength. It reflects how well Berkshire is managing its operations.
Confirms:Q2 operating earnings are over $11,346 million. This is more than Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 operating earnings are less than $11,346 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain strong cash flow from operations
Significant investment aligns with strong cash flow objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) As previously announced, Charles C. Chang will succeed Marc D. Hamburg as Berkshire’s Chief Financial Officer on June 1, 2026. In his new role, Mr. Chang will be paid an annual cash salary of $8,000,000. (e) In connection with Mr. Hamburg’s retirement as Berkshire’s Chief Financial Officer and in recognition of Mr. Hamburg’s many decades of ser…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | low |
BAC Bank of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Berkshire Hathaway aims to sustain robust cash flow from its operations to support its financial health.
Berkshire Hathaway plans to issue long-term debt to support its capital allocation strategy.
Berkshire Hathaway is transitioning the CFO role from Marc D. Hamburg to Charles C. Chang.
Why it matters: Growth in insurance float shows the company can attract more premiums. This affects investment income.
Confirms:Insurance float grows to more than $177 billion, up from $176.9 billion.
Disproves:Insurance float growth stalls or declines.
Why it matters: A smooth change is important for financial stability. It also helps keep investor trust.
Confirms one read:Charles C. Chang takes over as CFO. There are no problems with financial reporting.
Confirms the other:Problems happen during the change. This affects financial reporting and investor trust.
Why it matters: Investment gains can greatly change overall earnings. They show market conditions and investment success.
Confirms one read:Investment gains in Q2 exceed $1,240 million, the loss reported for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Investment losses in Q2 exceed $1,240 million.
Advances: Issue long-term debt for capital allocation
Shifts capital allocation towards housing and tech aligns with objectives.
Advances: Issue long-term debt for capital allocation
Shifts in capital allocation align with long-term debt strategy.
Advances: Issue long-term debt for capital allocation
Investment in housing aligns with capital allocation strategy.
Advances: Issue long-term debt for capital allocation
Investment in AI aligns with tech-focused capital allocation.
Advances: Issue long-term debt for capital allocation
Significant investments indicate a new strategic direction.
Advances: Issue long-term debt for capital allocation
Increased stake in Alphabet supports tech investment strategy.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 2, 2026, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (“Berkshire” or “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference.
Other Events. On April 16, 2026, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (“Berkshire”) issued (i) ¥128,900,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 2.077% Senior Notes due 2029, (ii) ¥86,800,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 2.465% Senior Notes due 2031, (iii) ¥22,300,000,00 aggregate principal amount of its 2.739% Senior Notes due 2033, (iv) ¥27,300,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.084% Senior Notes due 2036, (v) 2,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.452% Senior Notes due 204…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 28, 2026, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. issued a press release announcing the Company’s earnings for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished with this report as an exhibit to this Form 8-K.
Other Events. Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s long-standing common stock repurchase policy permits us to repurchase shares of our Class A and Class B Common Stock at any time we believe the repurchase price is below our intrinsic value, conservatively determined. In the interest of transparency with our leadership transition, we are disclosing that we commenced repurchasing shares of our common stock under this policy on Wednesday, March 4, 2026. Our repurchase policy does not obligate us to acquir…