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Goldman Sachs (GS)
NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$1078.09+1.44%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, GS is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Market cap
- $313.52B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1998-08-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-14
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1078.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$1036.89consensus
Range $926.85 – $1154.01
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$1275.55consensus
Range $1238.68 – $1440.97
vs price: -15% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $1,078 GS trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $1,037 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $900–$1,066. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.7x
peer 18.5x · own history 16.4x
Premium
1.1x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
4%
our forecast 21%
Our fair value
$1036.89
range $926.85 – $1198.12
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
80th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -2.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
3rd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish19 analysts, 28% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $13.74 → $13.78 (+0.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 8 cut, 19 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 28% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -13.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$125.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,943.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for the dividend payment on June 29, 2026
Why it matters: This payment shows Goldman Sachs is committed to giving money back to shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The dividend of $4.50 per share is paid as scheduled.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or reduced.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-161d agoEconomic Times
Partnership for IPO enhances banking revenue opportunities.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MS, SCHW, and IBKR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting GS and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GS cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MS, SCHW, and IBKR start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping GS and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on GS and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-132mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 13, 2026, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Group Inc. and, together with its consolidated subsidiaries, the firm) reported its earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of Group Inc.’s press release containing this information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.