Goldman Sachs (GS)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$881.26-1.12%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Goldman Sachs’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

73.34 → 73.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Asset & Wealth Management revenue grows to $4.08B by 2026-Q1	Asset & Wealth Management revenue rises 10% in the same period.	Intact	revenue falls below $3.7 billion in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Asset & Wealth Management net revenues increased from $4.40 billion in 2025-Q3 to $5.05 billion in 2026-Q3, a 14% growth. Management is delivering on enhancing this segment's performance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital returned to shareholders reaches $6.38B in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in Goldman Sachs's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.38 billion.	Intact	capital return falls below $3.25 billion in 2026-Q1	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The quarterly dividend increased from $4.00 in 2025-Q3 to $5.00 in 2026-Q3. Capital returned to shareholders grew from $3.25 billion in 2025-Q3 to $4.49 billion in 2026-Q3, including share repurchases. Management is delivering on maintaining strong capital returns. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS grows to about $60.1 in 2026	A primary condition in Goldman Sachs's published investment case. The stated target is >= $60.1 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $55 per share in 2026-FY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Global Banking & Markets revenue grows to $12.74B by 2026-Q1	Goldman Sachs grows Global Banking & Markets revenue 19% by 2026-Q1.	Intact	revenue falls below $10.7 billion in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Global Banking & Markets net revenues increased from $10.12 billion in 2025-Q3 to $13.46 billion in 2026-Q3, a 32% growth. This reflects delivering on management's focus to grow this segment's revenue. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$73.56

$72.76 → $73.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$73.70B

$72.78B → $73.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$72.76	$72,781,092,678	17 / 15
2026-07-25	$72.76	$72,781,092,678	17 / 15
2026-07-26	$72.76	$72,781,092,678	17 / 15
2026-07-27	$72.76	$72,781,092,678	17 / 15
2026-07-28	$72.76	$72,781,092,678	17 / 15
2026-07-29	$72.76	$72,781,092,678	17 / 15
2026-07-30	$73.88	$73,303,761,090	22 / 19
2026-07-31	$73.94	$73,333,866,350	22 / 19
2026-08-01	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-02	$73.94	$73,333,866,350	22 / 19
2026-08-03	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-04	$73.94	$73,333,866,350	22 / 19
2026-08-05	$74.17	$73,582,554,920	22 / 19
2026-08-06	$74.17	$73,582,554,920	22 / 19
2026-08-07	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-08	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-09	$74.17	$73,582,554,920	22 / 19
2026-08-10	$74.17	$73,582,554,920	22 / 19
2026-08-12	$74.17	$73,582,554,920	22 / 19
2026-08-13	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-14	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-15	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-16	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-17	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-18	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-19	$73.07	$73,138,566,363	17 / 15
2026-08-20	$73.27	$73,387,276,638	17 / 15
2026-08-21	$73.27	$73,387,276,638	17 / 15
2026-08-22	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-23	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-24	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-25	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-26	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-27	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-28	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-29	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-30	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-08-31	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-01	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-02	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-03	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-04	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-05	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-06	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-07	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-08	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-09	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-10	$73.34	$73,391,560,428	17 / 15
2026-09-11	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-12	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-13	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-14	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-15	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-16	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-17	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-18	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-19	$73.34	$73,391,570,328	17 / 15
2026-09-20	$73.32	$73,383,876,360	17 / 15
2026-09-21	$73.31	$73,368,254,091	17 / 15
2026-09-22	$73.31	$73,368,254,091	17 / 15
2026-09-23	$73.31	$73,368,254,091	17 / 15
2026-09-24	$73.31	$73,368,254,091	17 / 15
2026-09-25	$72.76	$72,912,790,686	17 / 15
2026-09-26	$72.76	$72,912,790,686	17 / 15
2026-09-27	$72.76	$72,912,790,686	17 / 15
2026-09-28	$72.76	$72,912,790,686	17 / 15
2026-09-29	$72.75	$72,888,933,492	17 / 15
2026-09-30	$72.75	$72,888,933,492	17 / 15
2026-10-01	$72.57	$72,848,844,692	17 / 15
2026-10-02	$72.46	$72,870,384,165	17 / 15
2026-10-03	$72.44	$72,925,436,797	17 / 15
2026-10-04	$72.44	$72,925,436,797	17 / 15
2026-10-05	$72.30	$72,925,436,797	17 / 15
2026-10-06	$72.15	$72,929,445,387	17 / 15
2026-10-07	$72.16	$72,751,809,298	17 / 15
2026-10-08	$72.16	$72,751,809,298	17 / 15
2026-10-09	$72.28	$72,754,068,833	18 / 15
2026-10-10	$72.28	$72,754,068,833	18 / 15
2026-10-11	$72.15	$72,781,230,350	18 / 15
2026-10-12	$72.15	$72,781,230,350	18 / 15
2026-10-13	$72.15	$72,781,230,350	18 / 15
2026-10-14	$72.87	$73,328,776,081	18 / 16
2026-10-15	$73.56	$73,699,307,073	18 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	16	2
2026-06-01	7	16	3
2026-07-01	7	16	3
2026-08-01	7	16	2
2026-09-01	7	16	2
2026-10-01	8	16	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades9 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 9 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 14

$1010.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 14 · prior Oct 6

$970.00 → $1280.00+32.0%

Loop Capital MarketsOct 8

$1050.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$704.00$1408.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Asset & Wealth Management revenue grows to $4.08B by 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital returned to shareholders reaches $6.38B in 2026-Q1Required source inputs unavailable
EPS grows to about $60.1 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Global Banking & Markets revenue grows to $12.74B by 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Goldman Sachs outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strong capital returns and revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong relative to industry peers.

What's priced into Goldman Sachs

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with Goldman Sachs being considered cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market is not overly optimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong performance, particularly in Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management, as management remains on track with their priorities. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, given the recent trend of misses in the industry.

What Goldman Sachs hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for Goldman Sachs to maintain or improve guidance in upcoming calls and the performance of sector bellwethers like MS, SCHW, and HOOD. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could significantly impact the financial sector's performance.