Reading RJF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RJF free→Reading RJF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RJF free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RJF is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If RJF cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $154.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $155 RJF trades at 14× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $185 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $155–$172. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.92 → $2.91 (-0.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$252.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,964.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in investment banking shows strong market activity. This can increase overall earnings.
Confirms:Investment banking made over $272 million in the second quarter.
Disproves:Investment banking made less than $200 million in the second quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RJF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 13, 2026, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing that the Board of Directors had declared on May 13, 2026 a quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share for each outstanding share of common stock of the Company. The dividend is payable on July 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on July 1, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by refe…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$155.00 – $172.00 (median $165.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RJF Raymond James Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing assets under administration and fee-based accounts in the Private Client Group.
Invest in technology to improve efficiency and support financial professionals.
Grow investment banking revenues through strategic acquisitions and increased activity.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net new assets shows strong demand for Raymond James services. It impacts future revenues.
Confirms:Domestic Private Client Group net new assets exceed $23 billion for the fiscal second quarter.
Disproves:Net new assets fall below $20 billion for the fiscal second quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in net revenues may show weaker demand or market issues. This affects profit.
Confirms:Quarterly net revenues fall below $3.5 billion in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Quarterly net revenues stay above $3.5 billion in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show revenue trends and how well the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share exceeds $2.83 for the fiscal third quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls below $2.50 for the fiscal third quarter.
Why it matters: This redemption will remove a debt. It could also improve cash flow. It may show that management is confident in financial stability.
Confirms:The redemption is successful if there are no Series B shares left.
Disproves:If the redemption fails or there are delays, it is a bad sign.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company's financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid as scheduled to shareholders of record on July 1, 2026.
Disproves:If the company suddenly stops or cuts the dividend, it is a bad sign.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release disclosing its results for the fiscal second quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. In addition, a copy of the Company’s Financial Supplement and Earnings Presentation for the fiscal second quarter ended March 31, 2026 are attached as Exhibits 99.2 and 9…
Regulation FD Disclosure On February 19, 2026, the Company issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing that the Board of Directors had declared a quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share for each outstanding share of common stock of the Company. The dividend is payable on April 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on April 1, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 7.01, i…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 28, 2026, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release disclosing its results for the fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. In addition, a copy of the Company’s Financial Supplement and Earnings Presentation for the fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2025 are attached as Exhibits 99.2…
Regulation FD Disclosure On December 3, 2025, the Company issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing that the Board had declared on December 3, 2025 a quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share for each outstanding share of common stock of the Company. The dividend is payable on January 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on January 2, 2026. The Press Release also announced that the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.3984375 per depositary share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating…