Raymond James Financial (RJF)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$156.78-0.37%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Raymond James Financial’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.54 per share and continue share buybacks	A supporting condition in Raymond James Financial's published investment case. The stated target is dividend >= $0.54 per share quarterly.	Intact	dividend cut below $0.54 per share or buybacks halted	Dividend per share: $0.54 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: dividend >= $0.54 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.54 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bb9e9d15-7824-4667-88e0-b4921a593072. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS >= $2.72 next quarter	A primary condition in Raymond James Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.72 USD_PER_SHARE.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $2.72	Diluted EPS: $3.01 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.72 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Aug 5, 20263.01 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bb9e9d15-7824-4667-88e0-b4921a593072. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Investment banking revenues >=$272 million	Investment banking revenues rose 31% to $272 million.	Intact	investment banking revenue falls below $208 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Investment banking revenues increased from $207 million in 2025-Q2 to $285 million in 2026-Q3, a 38% rise. Management highlights a strong pipeline and strategic acquisitions like GreensLedge Holdings LLC. The trajectory shows delivering growth consistent with management’s stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Private Client Group fee-based assets reach >=$1.04 trillion	Raymond James Financial grows assets in its Private Client Group by 20%.	Intact	PCG fee-based assets fall below $872.8 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$16.71

Unavailable → $16.71 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$19.03B

$19.03B → $19.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$19,034,320,975	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$19,034,320,975	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$19,077,132,265	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$19,103,796,836	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$19,103,796,836	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$19,103,796,836	4 / 6
2026-10-07	$16.74	$19,102,697,232	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$16.77	$19,025,815,837	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$16.91	$19,025,815,837	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$16.85	$19,029,379,809	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$16.85	$19,029,379,809	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$16.85	$19,029,379,809	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$16.71	$19,027,879,809	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$16.71	$19,027,879,809	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$16.71	$19,027,879,809	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	8
2026-06-01	6	8
2026-07-01	6	9
2026-08-01	5	9
2026-09-01	6	10
2026-10-01	6	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 13 · prior Sep 1

$188.00 → $166.00-11.7%

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 27

$184.00 → $179.00-2.7%

Raymond JamesOct 7 · prior Sep 1

$160.00 → $197.00+23.1%

Wells FargoOct 1

$172.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$108.35$216.70

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.54 per share and continue share buybacksDividend per share: $0.54 per share
EPS >= $2.72 next quarterDiluted EPS: $3.01 per share
Investment banking revenues >=$272 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Private Client Group fee-based assets reach >=$1.04 trillionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Raymond James Financial outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth in key areas. The current thesis is in a watch state, reflecting medium confidence due to mixed recent performance and sector challenges.

What's priced into Raymond James Financial

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility with RJF, suggesting that it is seen as relatively cheap compared to peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully anticipate potential headwinds.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to grow private client group assets and expand investment banking revenues, which are key priorities. Recent financial performance has been neutral, and while there is a low probability of missing expectations, the firm operates in a high-miss-rate industry.

What Raymond James Financial hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth in key areas and the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly impact RJF's performance.

Bottom line

Overall, RJF's long-term thesis is contingent on consistent execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.