Reading LPLA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPLA free→Reading LPLA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPLA free→NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, LPLA trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $303.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $303 LPLA trades at 15× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $390 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.44 → $5.42 (-0.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$471.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,312.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact LPL's performance.
Confirms:LPL's revenue growth falls below the median of its historical range.
Disproves:Revenue growth is higher than average. This shows the company is still strong.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase operating income
Beating earnings estimates supports growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LPLA LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has lowered the upper end of the 2026 Core G&A outlook by $20 million.
Management has consistently maintained a dividend per share of $0.3 across multiple quarters.
Management aims to increase operating income, as seen in recent financial results.
Why it matters: Retail sales data impacts consumer spending trends. This can affect LPL's business outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows stronger than expected growth.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows weaker than expected growth.
Advances: Increase operating income
Rising metrics indicate positive growth trajectory.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 5, 2026, Somesh Khanna was elected as a director of LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) by the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”), effective immediately. The Board has determined that Mr. Khanna is independent under applicable listing standards of the Nasdaq Stock Market. Mr. Khanna will be entitled to a pro-rated annual…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or other…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 31, 2025, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise sub…