LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC (LPLA)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$315.61-1.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

29.99 → 30.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	5.49B
EPS	—	6.364
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	20.82B
EPS	—	23.44
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	23.95B
EPS	—	30.368

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Lower Core G&A costs	A supporting condition in LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is <= $2,190 million.	Intact	Core G&A costs exceed $2,190 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management lowered the 2026 Core G&A outlook range from $1,775-1,820 million pre-Commonwealth to $2,140-2,165 million including Commonwealth expenses. Core G&A expense rose 22% year-over-year to $519 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows management adjusting targets to reflect acquisition costs but maintaining focus on cost discipline, indicating delivering with adjustments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend per share at $0.3	A supporting condition in LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.3 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.3	Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.3 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 73024b5a-12ba-4366-a8b5-ae08e6b9ab09. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board declared and paid a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share in 2025-Q2, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. Dividend payments have been stable, indicating delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase operating income	LPL Financial is growing operating income strongly, from $368.8 million to $484.6 million.	Intact	operating income falls below $368.8 million next year	Operating income: $797.997M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $484.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 2026797,997,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $398 million in 2025-Q4 to $515 million in 2026-Q2, a 29% rise. Management emphasized improved operating leverage and strong performance, indicating delivering on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth	A primary condition in LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= 17.8% YoY.	Improving	revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$30.37

$29.35 → $30.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$23.95B

Unavailable → $23.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$29.35	Unavailable	15 / 4
2026-07-25	$29.53	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-26	$29.35	Unavailable	15 / 4
2026-07-27	$29.53	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-28	$29.35	Unavailable	15 / 4
2026-07-29	$29.35	Unavailable	15 / 4
2026-07-30	$29.53	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-31	$29.81	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-01	$29.81	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-02	$29.74	Unavailable	16 / 4
2026-08-03	$29.95	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-04	$29.74	Unavailable	16 / 4
2026-08-05	$29.74	Unavailable	16 / 4
2026-08-06	$29.74	Unavailable	16 / 4
2026-08-07	$29.95	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-08	$29.86	$24,098,307,990	16 / 5
2026-08-09	$29.95	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-10	$29.95	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-12	$29.95	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-13	$29.86	$24,098,307,990	16 / 5
2026-08-14	$29.95	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-15	$29.95	$23,988,262,434	11 / 5
2026-08-16	$29.95	$23,988,262,434	11 / 5
2026-08-17	$29.95	$23,988,262,434	11 / 5
2026-08-18	$29.95	$23,988,262,434	11 / 5
2026-08-19	$29.95	$23,988,262,434	11 / 5
2026-08-20	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-21	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-22	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-23	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-24	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-25	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-26	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-27	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-28	$30.02	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-29	$30.03	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-30	$30.03	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-08-31	$30.03	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-09-01	$30.03	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-09-02	$29.96	$24,049,154,460	11 / 5
2026-09-03	$29.96	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-04	$29.99	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-05	$29.99	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-06	$29.99	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-07	$29.99	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-08	$29.99	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-09	$29.99	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-10	$29.99	$24,049,154,460	12 / 5
2026-09-11	$29.99	Unavailable	12 / 4
2026-09-12	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-13	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-14	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-15	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-16	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-17	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-18	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-19	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-20	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-21	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-22	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-23	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-24	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	12 / 5
2026-09-25	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	11 / 5
2026-09-26	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	11 / 5
2026-09-27	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	11 / 5
2026-09-28	$29.99	$24,054,386,212	11 / 5
2026-09-29	$30.07	$24,052,695,421	11 / 5
2026-09-30	$30.07	$24,052,695,421	11 / 5
2026-10-01	$30.07	$24,052,695,421	11 / 5
2026-10-02	$30.08	$24,103,225,356	11 / 5
2026-10-03	$30.07	$24,086,140,119	12 / 6
2026-10-04	$30.07	$24,086,140,119	12 / 6
2026-10-05	$30.12	$24,086,140,119	12 / 5
2026-10-06	$30.11	$24,086,138,244	12 / 5
2026-10-07	$30.22	$24,056,011,772	12 / 5
2026-10-08	$30.19	$23,890,870,401	12 / 5
2026-10-09	$30.18	$23,890,870,401	12 / 5
2026-10-10	$30.18	$23,890,870,401	12 / 5
2026-10-11	$30.29	$23,967,104,779	12 / 5
2026-10-12	$30.29	$23,967,104,779	12 / 5
2026-10-13	$30.41	$24,009,215,890	12 / 5
2026-10-14	$30.38	$24,009,215,890	13 / 5
2026-10-15	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-16	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-17	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-18	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-19	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-20	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-21	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-22	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-23	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5
2026-10-24	$30.37	$23,953,242,876	13 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	3
2026-06-01	13	3
2026-07-01	14	3
2026-08-01	14	3
2026-09-01	14	4
2026-10-01	14	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 13 · prior Sep 1

$389.00 → $354.00-9.0%

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 10

$387.00 → $393.00+1.6%

UBSOct 7

$390.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 31

$401.00 → $409.00+2.0%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$370.00New observation · no comparable prior

OppenheimerOct 5

$554.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 1

$362.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$304.70$609.40

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Lower Core G&A costsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend per share at $0.3Dividend per share: $0.30 per share
Increase operating incomeOperating income: $797.997M
Revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LPLA is a financial-services business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact and its signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality and recent performance remain neutral.

What's priced into LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure places LPLA as expensive versus peers, while another points to a discount. The priced-in assessment says expectations are justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not show that the market is relying on a highly fragile setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings beats and management’s progress on repurchases and cost discipline support the business setup, though Core G&A rose and its 2026 outlook was adjusted to include Commonwealth expenses. Commonwealth onboarding is on schedule for Q4 2026, but its financial results are not yet available. Earnings surprises have been trending down after a past deep miss, while the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC hinges on

A favorable near-term shift would be a guidance increase after the prior reduction, along with continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers. The sector setup could weaken if the Fed begins cutting rates from the current level. Over the multi-year view, Commonwealth onboarding, asset retention, and cost discipline remain important execution tests.