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Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL)
NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$68.65+6.24%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that CRCL's competitive position is under threat from new stablecoin initiatives. The company has not shown strong recent financial performance, which is weak. Revenue growth expectations look modest compared to our view. CRCL trades at 24× P/E versus a peer median of 25×. This suggests the stock may be expensive. If CRCL cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Market cap
- $17.27B
- Employees
- 1,100
- IPO date
- 2025-04-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.65. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$50.77
Range $25.16 – $67.98
vs price: +35% above
Method agreement : medium · 9 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$44.25consensus
Range $33.98 – $54.52
vs price: +55% above
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$48.72consensus
Range $30.23 – $67.20
vs price: +41% above
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $65 CRCL trades at 24× p/e, below its 25× p/e peer median, but our blended $55 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $55–$150. Note: our $55 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($55–$150). Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.8x
peer 24.6x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
27%
our forecast 33%
Our fair value
$54.56
range $22.71 – $67.25
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 18% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 31% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
25.3xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=7357).
16th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -6.41x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=3598).
55th pctl · Financials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish14 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.22 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$426.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$941.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,863.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. A sharp drop in CRCL's price suggests the market is repricing the thesis. Additionally, new competition from a stablecoin initiative may increase pressure on CRCL.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 24d
Watch for RLDC Margin staying within 38-40%
Why it matters: Maintaining this margin is key for Circle's cost management and profitability. A drop could signal deeper issues.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:RLDC Margin reported at 38% or higher for the next quarter.
Disproves:RLDC Margin falls below 38% for two consecutive quarters.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-031mo agoYahoo! Finance
New stablecoin initiative may increase competitive pressure.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for consumer spending trends in retail sales data
- Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting CRCL and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CRCL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CRCL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on CRCL and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping CRCL and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-1225d agoItem 5.02
Director — Rajeev Date: Mr. Date tendered his resignation for personal reasons as part of an orderly process of Board refreshment.
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.