Reading HLI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLI free→Reading HLI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLI free→NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, though the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact HLI's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $139.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $140 HLI trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $140 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.65x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.93 → $1.83 (-5.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$265.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,471.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EPS shows strong performance and good cost management.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EPS exceeds $1.70.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EPS falls below $1.60.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HLI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLI Houlihan Lokey | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining robust cash flow from operating activities.
Continue efforts to drive revenue growth across business segments.
Aim to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is a priority for management. Weak cash flow could raise concerns.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $50 million for the quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported below $30 million for the quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Houlihan Lokey's business health. A drop signals weakness.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth is above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher pay costs lower profits. This can hurt overall performance.
Confirms:Pay costs are over 65% of revenues in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Pay costs stay at or below 65% of revenues in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Corporate Finance shows demand and good execution in a tough market.
Confirms:Q2 Corporate Finance revenues grow year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Corporate Finance revenues grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Corporate Finance is a major revenue driver. A decline could signal market weakness.
Confirms:Corporate Finance revenues drop below $433 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Corporate Finance made over $433 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth impacts Houlihan Lokey. A drop signals broader issues.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Other Events. On February 25, 2026, Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (the “Company”) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission a prospectus supplement pursuant to Rule 424(b) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, relating to the possible resale of (i) up to 4,009 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock issuable upon conversion of an equal number of shares of the Company’s Class B common stock by the former members of Waller Helms Advisors LLC, an Illinois limited liability company, o…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On January 24, 2026, director Robert A. Schriesheim, who has served as a director of Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (the “Company”) since July 2015, informed the Company that he does not intend to stand for reelection when his term expires at the Company’s 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Excha…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 30, 2025, our Board of Directors (“Board”) approved the (i) increase of the size of the board from ten to eleven and (ii) appointed R. Scott Mund as an independent Class II director to our Board, in each case, effective as of October 1, 2025. Mr. Mund was elected to serve until our 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and until his succ…