Houlihan Lokey (HLI)

NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$131.31-1.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Houlihan Lokey’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.69 → 8.62 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	733.68M
EPS	—	1.926
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	2.62B
EPS	—	6.959
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	3.1B
EPS	—	8.618

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stable management and board	The company has stable management and solid cash flow yield of 7%.	Intact	Unexpected major management or board departures	No unexpected departures vs target Director Todd Carter resigned without dispute; Gillian Zucker opted out of reelection. No unexpected major management or board departures detected. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stability or growth from $125M in Q4 2026	A supporting condition in Houlihan Lokey's published investment case. The stated target is >= $125M per quarter.	Broken	Operating income falls below $110M per quarter	Operating income: $78M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $125M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202678,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5e3499f2-fc8b-48e6-a0b5-8a2bfb6c7e67. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income declined from $141M in 2024-Q4 to $125M in 2025-Q4 and $78M in 2026-Q2, reflecting challenges in profitability. Management continues to focus on improving operating income, but the trajectory shows limited progress in recent quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Profit margin near current 18.4 PE level	Houlihan Lokey has strong profit margins near 18.4 PE.	Under Pressure	PE falls below 15 or profit margin drops significantly	P/E (TTM): 19.42x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202619.4246 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: HLI:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income declined from $141M in 2024-Q4 to $125M in 2025-Q4 and $78M in 2026-Q2, reflecting challenges in profitability. Management continues to focus on improving operating income, but the trajectory shows limited progress in recent quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of at least 15% next year	Analysts expect 15% revenue growth next year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2026 revenues grew to $2.62B from $2.39B in 2025, with Corporate Finance up 14%, Financial Restructuring down 3%, and Financial and Valuation Advisory up 8%. CEO reiterated optimism despite near-term headwinds. The trajectory shows mixed but overall growth, delivering on segment revenue expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$8.62

$9.39 → $8.62 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.10B

$3.28B → $3.10B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.39	$3,282,608,456	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$9.39	$3,282,608,456	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$9.42	$3,299,160,890	10 / 8
2026-07-27	$9.39	$3,282,608,456	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$9.39	$3,282,608,456	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$9.39	$3,282,608,456	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$9.39	$3,282,608,456	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$8.80	$3,133,199,530	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-03	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-07	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$8.83	$3,137,716,270	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$8.80	$3,133,183,540	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$8.80	$3,133,200,780	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$8.77	$3,133,228,539	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$8.69	$3,122,514,252	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$8.69	$3,123,343,652	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$8.69	$3,123,343,652	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$8.69	$3,123,343,652	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$8.67	$3,123,343,652	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$8.67	$3,111,223,652	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$8.78	$3,132,602,302	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$8.72	$3,117,125,375	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$8.66	$3,098,883,907	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$8.66	$3,098,883,907	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$8.66	$3,102,323,907	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$8.66	$3,102,323,907	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$8.62	$3,102,303,907	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$8.62	$3,102,657,907	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$8.62	$3,102,657,907	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$8.62	$3,098,393,467	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	1
2026-06-01	4	5	1
2026-07-01	5	6	1
2026-08-01	5	6	0
2026-09-01	5	6	0
2026-10-01	6	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 8 · prior Jul 30

$177.00 → $165.00-6.8%

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 8

$161.00 → $154.00-4.3%

$0$97.35$194.70

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income stability or growth from $125M in Q4 2026Published status: Broken
Profit margin near current 18.4 PE levelPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of at least 15% next yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Houlihan Lokey outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HLI is a financial-services business with a mixed growth profile, not a clear turnaround or high-growth story in the evidence. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue grew overall, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into Houlihan Lokey

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.18 premium, while the expectations gap is nearly aligned at -0.03. The evidence labels the current pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not point to unusually high expectations or a broad pricing mismatch.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, revenue growth across segments remains management’s stated priority, and fiscal 2026 revenue rose from the prior year despite a decline in restructuring. Cost control and capital returns are also ongoing priorities, but recent earnings misses and a 34% near-term miss probability leave execution risk in view. The financial-services sector is a headwind, and a possible rate-cut cycle could add pressure near term.

What Houlihan Lokey hinges on

The near-term thesis would weaken if HLI cuts guidance on its next call, especially given its recent run of earnings misses. It would be supported if financial-sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance. The broader multi-year question is whether revenue growth and cost discipline can continue despite mixed segment results and sector pressure.