Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$532.14+1.23%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Berkshire Hathaway’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective deployment of $400B cash pile	Berkshire Hathaway has a strong cash flow and a $400 billion cash pile that supports investments.	Improving	Cash pile remains idle or shrinks without improving cash flow	Active deployment: $37.4B Alphabet + $330M Bending Spoons vs idle cash trip Berkshire built a $37.4B Alphabet stake, increased Bending Spoons bet, and resumed share buybacks, confirming active capital deployment. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Smooth CEO and CFO transitions	The CEO transition to Greg Abel is smooth and supports long-term strategy.	Intact	Leadership changes cause strategic or operational setbacks	0 disruptions vs 0 allowed CFO succession completed June 2026. Q1 2026 earnings beat. No news of leadership-related operational disruptions. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable profit margins	The company aims for about 5% revenue growth next year and steady profit margins.	Broken	Profit margins decline more than 2 percentage points from recent levels	Operating margin: 17.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Aug 10, 202617.182343 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annually	A primary condition in Berkshire Hathaway's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: 10.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202610.044858 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5c75e9f0-bb5a-461d-9308-95567ed20710. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	2
2026-08-01	2	2
2026-09-01	2	2
2026-10-01	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain stable profit marginsPublished status: Broken
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annuallyRevenue growth: 10.04%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-9.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Berkshire Hathaway outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term cash flow. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak and the market is closely watching for changes in sector dynamics.

What's priced into Berkshire Hathaway

The market appears to be pricing in a premium compared to peers, reflecting elevated expectations despite the company's fragile earnings quality. The valuation is considered expensive, indicating that investors may have high hopes for future performance that are not yet justified by current results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on maintaining strong cash flow and has successfully issued long-term debt for capital allocation. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and the probability of missing earnings estimates is low but notable, as the company has been trending down in earnings surprises.

What Berkshire Hathaway hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like AIG, HIG, and ACGL. If these companies continue to report strong earnings, it could provide a tailwind for BRK-B. Conversely, if they start to miss expectations, it may negatively impact BRK-B's performance.