Reading CB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CB free→Reading CB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CB free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CB is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $328.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $327 CB trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 11× p/e peer median. Our $299 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $6.68 → $6.68 (-0.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 6 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$74.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$159.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $936.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Chubb continues strong growth in earnings and premiums.
Confirms:Net income per share exceeds $6.99, showing continued growth.
Disproves:Net income per share is below $6.99. This shows a possible slowdown.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve strong growth in operating earnings
Strong earnings report indicates growth in operating earnings.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 4, 2026, Chubb INA Holdings LLC (the “Company”) agreed to sell in a public offering C$400,000,000 of 3.780% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and C$400,000,000 of 4.034% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes” and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”). The Notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Chubb Limited. Attached as Exhibits 1.1 and 1.2 are copies of the underwriting agreement and terms agreement relating to such public offering. Attached…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HIG Hartford (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing operating earnings through diversified business and underwriting discipline.
Aim for double-digit growth in EPS and tangible book value despite macroeconomic challenges.
Utilize debt issuance to support strategic capital allocation initiatives.
Why it matters: Growth in life insurance helps overall revenue and profits.
Confirms:Life insurance premiums grow more than 20% year over year.
Disproves:Life insurance premiums grow less than 10% year over year.
Advances: Double-digit EPS and tangible book value growth
Dividend increase and buyback support earnings growth.
Advances: Debt issuance for capital allocation
Debt issuance aligns with capital allocation strategy.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers (e) At the Chubb Limited (“Company”) Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (“AGM”) held on May 21, 2026, the Company’s shareholders approved the Chubb Limited 2016 Long-Term Incentive Plan, as amended and restated (“LTIP”). A more complete description of the LTIP is contained in the Company’s proxy statement, dated April 3, 2026, as filed with the S…
Other Events. On May 18, 2026, Chubb INA Holdings LLC (the “Company”) agreed to sell in a public offering $1,000,000,000 of 5.300% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Chubb Limited. Attached as Exhibits 1.1 and 1.2 are copies of the underwriting agreement and terms agreement relating to such public offering. Attached as Exhibits 4.1 and 4.2 are the form of officer’s certificate establishing the Notes and the form of the Notes. Attache…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 21, 2026, Chubb Limited issued a Press Release reporting its first quarter 2026 results and the availability of its first quarter 2026 Financial Supplement. The Press Release and the Financial Supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for p…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 3, 2026, Chubb Limited issued a Press Release reporting its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 results and the availability of its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 Financial Supplement. The Press Release and the Financial Supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are hereby incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99…