Reading THG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THG free→Reading THG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THG free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $198.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $198 THG trades at 10× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $241 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $195–$220. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.74x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.52 → $3.88 (+10.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,002.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is keeping costs down and making more money.
Confirms:Operating income increases year over year by more than 10% in Q2 results.
Disproves:Operating income growth is flat or declines year over year in Q2 results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for THG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) On May 13, 2026, the Board of Directors of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Patricia A. Norton-Gatto, Senior Vice President and Corporate Controller, to assume the role of Principal Accounting Officer effective on that date. Accordingly, Jeffrey M. Farber, 62, the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$195.00 – $220.00 (median $207.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
THG Hanover Insurance | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has announced a new $700 million share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
The company aims to increase operating income through disciplined execution and pricing strategies.
The company is focused on enhancing cash flow from operations to support growth and capital allocation.
Why it matters: A successful buyback shows confidence in earnings. It can help the stock value.
Confirms:The company repurchases at least $200 million of stock under the new program within the next quarter.
Disproves:The company fails to repurchase any shares under the new program within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations shows the company is strong and works well.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 15% year over year in Q2 results.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or remains flat year over year in Q2 results.
Why it matters: A lower combined ratio means better performance in underwriting. This can help investors feel good.
Confirms:The Q2 combined ratio is below 90%. This shows better underwriting results.
Disproves:The Q2 combined ratio is above 90%. This shows ongoing underwriting problems.
Why it matters: Strong growth in premiums shows business expansion. This can lead to higher future earnings.
Confirms:Net premiums written growth exceeds 4% in Q2 compared to the previous year.
Disproves:Net premiums written growth falls below 2% in Q2, signaling potential market share loss.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A high return on equity shows good management of money. It also means the company makes money.
Confirms:Operating return on equity is above 20% in Q2.
Disproves:Operating return on equity falls below 18%. This may mean there are profit problems.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 12%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Such information, including the exhibits attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section. On April 29, 2026, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Additionally, on Apr…
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, the Board terminated the Company’s existing share repurchase program, initially approved in December 2018, and adopted a new share repurchase program authorizing an aggregate of $700 million in share repurchases (the “Share Repurchase Program”). Repurchases under the Share Repurchase Program may be made at the Company’s discretion from time to time using open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, accelerated repurchase programs or other transactio…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Such information, including the exhibits attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section. On February 3, 2026, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Additionally, o…