Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-14
$221.02+1.56%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put PGR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Property & Casualty Insurance is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Combined ratio remains near or below 87%: metric not reported.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 10% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskPGR's growth in net premiums written and earned must continue to justify its price. Revenue grew 6% year over year, but the last quarter missed expectations. It trades at 3.7× price-to-book versus a 1.7× peer median, indicating that expectations look modest versus our view. The primary risk is the combined ratio remaining near or below 87%, which could pressure profitability. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. PGR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 25 analysts currently covering PGR (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for PGR in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare PGR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Property & Casualty Insurance — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put PGR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Grow net premiums written and earned
Growth mix change supports premium growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $221.02
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $221.02.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Legal issues could impact underwriting profitability.
Data edge could enhance competitive position.
Market share growth aligns with premium growth objective.
Widened combined ratio indicates potential profitability issues.
EPS growth not reflected in share price raises concerns.
Growth in policies supports premium growth objective.
Higher demand directly supports premium growth.
