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Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· 1–3 mo
$204.74+0.61%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect PGR's performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The company is sensitive to macro factors, particularly interest rates and economic growth, so watching these elements will be important. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $118.51B
- Employees
- 70,000
- IPO date
- 1994-03-29
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-15
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $204.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$206.86consensus
Range $198.05 – $216.48
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$259.62consensus
Range $174.29 – $262.97
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $204 PGR trades at 11× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $205 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $208–$259. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.7x
peer 10.9x · own history 18.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-1%
our forecast 22%
Our fair value
$204.97
range $191.71 – $213.82
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
40th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
64th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral21 analysts, 32% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.76 → $3.77 (+0.2% / 30d). 11 raised, 7 cut, 21 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 32% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$229.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,398.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for April net premiums written growth rate
Why it matters: This growth rate signals how well the company is attracting new business. A strong rate supports positive investor sentiment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:April net premiums written growth rate above 6%.
Disproves:April net premiums written growth rate below 4%.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PGR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CB, TRV, and ALL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting PGR and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit PGR and other Financials names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on PGR and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like CB, TRV, and ALL start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping PGR and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits PGR and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-121mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Consistent with The Progressive Corporation’s (the “Company”) Form 8-K filed on January 28, 2026, and in anticipation of John P. Sauerland’s retirement on July 3, 2026, on May 8, 2026, the Board of Directors elected Andrew J. Quigg, the Company’s current Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer, as the Company’s next Vice President and Chi…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.