Reading HIG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HIG free→Reading HIG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HIG free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $131.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $131 HIG trades at 9× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $148 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.32 → $3.23 (-2.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$201.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,188.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in core earnings growth may show weaker business performance.
Confirms:Q2 core earnings growth is reported below 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 core earnings growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HIG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) and Wellington Management Company LLP (“Wellington”) announced that they had reached a definitive agreement under which Wellington Investment Advisors Holdings, LLP, Wellington’s corporate parent, will acquire the Company’s Hartford Funds business (“Hartford Funds”). Under the terms of the transaction, Wellington will operate Hartford Funds and serve as investment advisor to all funds following closing. The tran…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HIG Hartford (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | low |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining high core earnings and return on equity through disciplined underwriting and strategic investments.
Emphasize generating strong cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives and shareholder returns.
Continue investments in innovation and technology to enhance business processes and market differentiation.
Why it matters: The deal will bring Hartford Funds into Wellington. This will make a stronger wealth management platform.
Confirms:The deal will close in Q1 2027. All regulatory approvals are secured.
Disproves:The deal does not close on time due to regulatory problems.
Why it matters: The combined ratio helps us see how well underwriting is doing. A drop means better profits in insurance.
Confirms:The combined ratio for Business Insurance goes up from 94.8 in Q1 2026.
Disproves:The combined ratio gets worse. This shows underwriting problems.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show job losses. This can reduce demand for insurance.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims were above 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims were below 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Why it matters: Growth in core earnings shows strong performance. It also backs management's goals.
Confirms:Core earnings for Q2 2026 exceed $866 million, showing growth from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Core earnings drop below $866 million. This shows possible operational issues.
Why it matters: Lower GDP growth may mean less economic activity. This can hurt Hartford's insurance business.
Confirms:GDP growth reported below 2% in the second estimate for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth reported above 2% in the second estimate for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher inflation can raise costs for Hartford. This may hurt how much money they make.
Confirms:CPI reported above 3% for April 2026.
Disproves:CPI reported below 3% for April 2026.
Why it matters: This deal is valued at $1.9 billion and could reshape The Hartford's wealth management strategy. It may enhance growth and operational efficiency.
Confirms:The acquisition will close before Q1 2027 as planned. This shows a good strategy.
Disproves:The deal faces regulatory delays or fails to close by Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Slower premium growth may mean challenges in the market.
Confirms:Business Insurance premium growth was below 5% in Q2.
Disproves:Business Insurance premium growth was above 5% in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay dividends and invest. This matches management's focus on cash.
Confirms:Cash from operations exceeds $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations falls below $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026 , The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Company") issued (i) a news release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026, and (ii) its Investor Financial Supplement (“IFS”) relating to its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the news release and the IFS are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by referenc…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026 , The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Company") issued (i) a news release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period ended December 31, 2025, and (ii) its Investor Financial Supplement (“IFS”) relating to its financial results for the quarterly period ended December 31, 2025. Copies of the news release and the IFS are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 27, 2025 , The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Company") issued (i) a news release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2025, and (ii) its Investor Financial Supplement (“IFS”) relating to its financial results for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2025. Copies of the news release and the IFS are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein b…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 24, 2025, The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Company") entered into a Second Amended and Re stated Credit Agreement (the "Credit Agreement"), among the Company, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Citibank, N.A., U.S. Bank National Association, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as syndication agents, and BofA Securities, Inc., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Citibank, N.A, U.S. Bank Nati…