Reading ORI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORI free→Reading ORI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORI free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, although ORI trades above typical compared with sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 ORI trades at 10× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.83 → $0.80 (-4.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$223.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,687.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector revenue growth may show wider economic problems. This could affect ORI's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ORI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 13, 2026 Old Republic International Corporation (the “Company”) priced a registered underwritten public offering of 5.700% Senior Notes due 2036 in the aggregate principal amount of $700,000,000 (the “Notes”) to be sold pursuant to an underwriting agreement that was entered into among the Company, and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and PNC Capital Markets LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein, dated May 13, 2026 (the “Un…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORI Old Republic International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Focus on capital allocation through strategic debt issuance and financial obligations.
Aim to enhance operating income through improved operational efficiency.
Focus on improving net income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: A drop in net operating income shows profit problems. This may raise worries about growth.
Confirms:Q2 net operating income was below $152 million. This is a drop of over 10% from last year.
Disproves:Q2 net operating income is above $152 million. This shows stable profits.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use show how management will use its money. This affects growth and options.
Confirms one read:Management gives a clear update on capital use plans during the Q2 earnings call.
Confirms the other:No big updates or changes to the capital use plans are given.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition could enhance Old Republic's market position and growth potential. It is a key part of their strategy.
Confirms:The acquisition of ECM was completed. This will be in Q3 results.
Disproves:Acquisition of ECM fails to close due to regulatory or other issues.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows better efficiency and more revenue. This helps management's goal to boost operating income.
Confirms:Q2 operating income growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 operating income growth is less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A combined ratio over 95% shows worse underwriting performance. This can hurt future profits.
Confirms:Q2 combined ratio was above 95%. This shows underwriting problems.
Disproves:Q2 combined ratio was below 95%. This shows better underwriting performance.
Why it matters: Higher net income growth shows good plans and better work. This matches management's goal to increase net income.
Confirms:Q2 net income growth exceeds 25% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net income growth is below 25% year over year.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Old Republic International Corporation announced the results of its operations and its financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the earnings release is included as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.