Travelers Companies (The) (TRV)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-30
$396.22-0.51%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put TRV beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Property & Casualty Insurance is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Expense ratio stays near 28.5% for full year 2026: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 1% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskTRV’s thesis rests on strong financial performance and sustaining core income growth alongside underwriting performance. Earnings have beaten consensus in recent quarters, though revenue growth evidence is limited. Q3 2026 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 33.8%. TRV trades at 3× P/B versus a 2× peer median and 2× its own history. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast, leaving expectations full. The specific risk is the expense ratio staying near 28.5% for full-year 2026, though its mapping needs verification. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 15%. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. TRV is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 29 analysts currently covering TRV (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TRV in the last 4 months.
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Compare TRV with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRV Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Property & Casualty Insurance — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put TRV next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Sustain core income growth and strong underwriting performance
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $396.22
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $396.22.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
2027 investment income outlook supports core income growth; increased cyber cession modestly offsets underwriting exposure.
Advances: Grow net written premiums across all segments
Enhances premium growth through expanded coverage offerings.
Advances: Core income growth
Robust growth aligns with core income growth objective.
Advances: Core income growth
Excellent results confirm core income growth objective.
Advances: Core income growth
Improved margin outlook supports core income growth objective.
Threatens: Core income growth
Downgrade indicates potential slowing growth and margin issues.