Hartford (The) (HIG)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$135.12+1.74%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hartford (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.70 → 13.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations at or above $1.045 billion	Cash from operations grows steadily, reaching over $1 billion in Q1 2026.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $985 million	Cash from operations: $1.189B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.045 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 23, 20261,189,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Core earnings ROE at or above 20%	Hartford keeps strong core earnings with ROE above 20%.	Intact	core earnings ROE falls below 16%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Core earnings grew to $945 million in 2026-Q2 from $932 million in 2025-Q2, with trailing 12-month core earnings ROE rising from 16.0% in 2024-Q2 to 18.7% in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes strong core earnings and ROE, and the financials show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth at or above 3%	A supporting condition in Hartford (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 1%	Revenue growth: 3.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20263.950193 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8b67174c-7ef7-492e-bbfc-7937287ae172. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.78

$13.82 → $13.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.82	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-25	$13.82	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-26	$13.78	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-27	$13.78	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-28	$13.78	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-29	$13.72	$29,721,186,350	23 / 6
2026-07-30	$13.72	$29,721,186,350	23 / 6
2026-07-31	$13.73	$29,760,535,840	23 / 6
2026-08-01	$13.74	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-02	$13.73	$29,760,535,840	23 / 6
2026-08-03	$13.73	$29,760,535,840	23 / 6
2026-08-04	$13.73	$29,760,535,840	23 / 6
2026-08-05	$13.73	$29,760,535,840	23 / 6
2026-08-06	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-07	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-08	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-09	$13.70	$29,833,035,840	23 / 6
2026-08-10	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-12	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-13	$13.69	$29,914,935,840	23 / 6
2026-08-14	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-15	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-16	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-17	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-18	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-19	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-20	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-21	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-22	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-23	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-24	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-25	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-26	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-27	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-28	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-29	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-30	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-31	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-01	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-02	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-03	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-04	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-05	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-06	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-07	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-08	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-09	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-10	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-11	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-12	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-13	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-14	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-15	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-16	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-17	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-18	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-19	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-20	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-21	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-22	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-23	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-24	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-25	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-26	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-27	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-28	$13.69	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-29	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-09-30	$13.70	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-01	$13.71	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-02	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-03	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-04	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-05	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-06	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-07	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-08	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-09	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-10	$13.72	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-11	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-12	$13.73	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-13	$13.75	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-10-14	$13.78	Unavailable	15 / 4
2026-10-15	$13.78	Unavailable	15 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	13
2026-06-01	10	13
2026-07-01	10	14
2026-08-01	9	14
2026-09-01	9	15
2026-10-01	8	16

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 12

$137.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$75.35$150.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations at or above $1.045 billionCash from operations: $1.189B
Core earnings ROE at or above 20%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above 3%Revenue growth: 3.95%

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hartford (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on core earnings and disciplined capital allocation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some sector challenges.

What's priced into Hartford (The)

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that HIG is viewed as a cheap option compared to its peers. There is a low level of fragility in the current setup, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.

What the fundamentals likely do

HIG's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, with management on track to maintain robust core earnings and return on equity. However, there is a slight risk of earnings surprises trending down, which could impact sentiment.

What Hartford (The) hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as guidance changes from management, interest rate movements, and performance from sector leaders like BRK-B and AIG. These elements will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of HIG's performance.