Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Q: What's priced into Progressive Corporation (PGR) stock?

The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that PGR is seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a divergence in valuation driven by its durable premium, suggesting that investors may not expect significant near-term catalysts.

Q: What does the Progressive Corporation (PGR) outlook hinge on?

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CB, TRV, and ALL, as their earnings results will influence PGR's momentum. Additionally, any changes in interest rates by the Fed could impact the broader Financials sector.

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$218.49+2.22%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Progressive Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.20 → 16.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain share repurchase and quarterly dividends	A supporting condition in Progressive Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share and active buybacks.	Intact	Dividend cut or buyback suspension next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share consistently from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q3. The Board renewed share repurchase authorization in 2026-Q2. Capital allocation discipline is consistent with management's stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Combined ratio remains near or below 87%	A primary condition in Progressive Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is <=87% combined ratio.	Under Pressure	Combined ratio rises above 89% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The combined ratio was 88.0% for full year 2025 and 88.7% year-to-date 2026-Q3, showing stable underwriting profitability. Management has maintained disciplined cost and loss control, delivering consistent combined ratio performance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Smooth leadership transitions with planned successors	Leadership changes are planned with named successors.	Intact	Leadership changes cause major disruption or resignations	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 6 quarters. Management announced planned leadership transitions with Personal Lines President retiring January 2027 and CFO succession completed in 2026-Q1. The company is managing these transitions as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net premiums written grow about 6% year-over-year	Progressive grows net premiums written about 6% yearly.	Intact	Net premiums growth falls below ~4% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net premiums written grew from $20,076 million in 2025-Q2 to $22,301 million in 2026-Q3, a 4% year-over-year increase. Policies in force increased 6% year-over-year as of 2026-Q3. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in premiums and customer base. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.16

$16.23 → $16.16 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$92.01B

$93.06B → $92.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.23	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-25	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-26	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-27	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-28	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-29	$16.24	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-30	$16.23	$93,212,171,492	15 / 8
2026-07-31	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-01	$16.23	$93,212,171,492	15 / 8
2026-08-02	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-03	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-04	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-05	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-06	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-07	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-08	$16.27	$92,341,225,000	22 / 8
2026-08-09	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-10	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-12	$16.27	$92,538,644,440	22 / 9
2026-08-13	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-14	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-15	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-16	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-17	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-18	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-19	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-20	$16.20	$92,751,947,397	15 / 8
2026-08-21	$16.19	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-22	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-23	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-24	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-25	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-26	$16.20	$92,799,627,720	15 / 7
2026-08-27	$16.20	$92,799,627,720	15 / 7
2026-08-28	$16.20	$92,799,627,720	15 / 7
2026-08-29	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-08-30	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-08-31	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 8
2026-09-01	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 8
2026-09-02	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-03	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-04	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-05	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-06	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-07	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-08	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-09	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-10	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-11	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-12	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-13	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-14	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-15	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-16	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-17	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-18	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-19	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-20	$16.19	$92,953,911,992	15 / 8
2026-09-21	$16.19	$92,953,911,992	15 / 8
2026-09-22	$16.19	$92,984,890,563	15 / 8
2026-09-23	$16.19	$92,860,747,706	15 / 8
2026-09-24	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	15 / 8
2026-09-25	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	15 / 8
2026-09-26	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$16.20	$92,899,476,277	15 / 8
2026-10-02	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 8
2026-10-03	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 9
2026-10-04	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 9
2026-10-05	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 9
2026-10-06	$16.25	$92,736,799,371	16 / 7
2026-10-07	$16.26	$92,870,331,459	16 / 7
2026-10-08	$16.26	$92,783,456,459	16 / 7
2026-10-09	$16.26	$92,586,893,959	16 / 7
2026-10-10	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-11	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-12	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-13	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-14	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 6
2026-10-15	$16.16	$92,011,394,505	15 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	16	1
2026-06-01	8	16	3
2026-07-01	8	16	3
2026-08-01	8	16	2
2026-09-01	8	16	2
2026-10-01	8	16	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 15 · prior Jul 16

$198.00 → $196.00-1.0%

BMO CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 16

$205.00 → $216.00+5.4%

HSBCOct 7 · prior Jul 6

$221.00 → $216.00-2.3%

Raymond JamesSep 21

$245.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 16 · prior Aug 5

$236.00 → $230.00-2.5%

$0$134.75$269.50

1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain share repurchase and quarterly dividendsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Combined ratio remains near or below 87%Published status: Under Pressure
Smooth leadership transitions with planned successorsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net premiums written grow about 6% year-over-yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Progressive Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in premiums and disciplined underwriting. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance.

What's priced into Progressive Corporation

The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that PGR is seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a divergence in valuation driven by its durable premium, suggesting that investors may not expect significant near-term catalysts.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain robust, given management's consistent focus on growing net premiums and maintaining a disciplined combined ratio. However, there is a moderate risk of near-term volatility due to recent misses in the industry.

What Progressive Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CB, TRV, and ALL, as their earnings results will influence PGR's momentum. Additionally, any changes in interest rates by the Fed could impact the broader Financials sector.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, PGR's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector headwinds while continuing to execute on its growth and profitability strategies. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.16

$16.23 → $16.16 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$92.01B

$93.06B → $92.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.23	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-25	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-26	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-27	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-28	$16.26	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-29	$16.24	$93,058,866,670	23 / 9
2026-07-30	$16.23	$93,212,171,492	15 / 8
2026-07-31	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-01	$16.23	$93,212,171,492	15 / 8
2026-08-02	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-03	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-04	$16.29	$92,658,850,000	22 / 8
2026-08-05	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-06	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-07	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-08	$16.27	$92,341,225,000	22 / 8
2026-08-09	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-10	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-12	$16.27	$92,538,644,440	22 / 9
2026-08-13	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-14	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-15	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 7
2026-08-16	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-17	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-18	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-19	$16.20	$92,932,671,492	15 / 8
2026-08-20	$16.20	$92,751,947,397	15 / 8
2026-08-21	$16.19	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-22	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-23	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-24	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-25	$16.20	$92,736,704,643	15 / 7
2026-08-26	$16.20	$92,799,627,720	15 / 7
2026-08-27	$16.20	$92,799,627,720	15 / 7
2026-08-28	$16.20	$92,799,627,720	15 / 7
2026-08-29	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-08-30	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-08-31	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 8
2026-09-01	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 8
2026-09-02	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-03	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-04	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-05	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-06	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-07	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-08	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-09	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-10	$16.21	$92,901,002,651	15 / 7
2026-09-11	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-12	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-13	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-14	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-15	$16.20	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-16	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-17	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-18	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-19	$16.21	$92,897,727,153	15 / 7
2026-09-20	$16.19	$92,953,911,992	15 / 8
2026-09-21	$16.19	$92,953,911,992	15 / 8
2026-09-22	$16.19	$92,984,890,563	15 / 8
2026-09-23	$16.19	$92,860,747,706	15 / 8
2026-09-24	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	15 / 8
2026-09-25	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	15 / 8
2026-09-26	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$16.20	$92,897,819,135	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$16.20	$92,899,476,277	15 / 8
2026-10-02	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 8
2026-10-03	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 9
2026-10-04	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 9
2026-10-05	$16.16	$92,736,799,371	16 / 9
2026-10-06	$16.25	$92,736,799,371	16 / 7
2026-10-07	$16.26	$92,870,331,459	16 / 7
2026-10-08	$16.26	$92,783,456,459	16 / 7
2026-10-09	$16.26	$92,586,893,959	16 / 7
2026-10-10	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-11	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-12	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-13	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 7
2026-10-14	$16.26	$92,590,738,599	16 / 6
2026-10-15	$16.16	$92,011,394,505	15 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings