Reading MCY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCY free→Reading MCY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCY free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with MCY trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $101 MCY trades at 7× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $147 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.35 → $1.80 (+33.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$228.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,287.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth helps the company make more money overall.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MCY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Agreement. Senior Notes Offering On June 12, 2026, Mercury General Corporation (the “Company”) completed a public offering of $525.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.250% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes are the Company’s unsecured senior obligations and rank equally in right of payment with all of the Company’s existing and future unsecured senior indebtedness. The Notes were issued and sold at a public offering price of 99.764% of their princip…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCY Mercury General | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share at $0.3175 as a capital allocation priority.
Focus on increasing revenue growth as a key strategic priority.
Enhance net income as part of the company's financial performance goals.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show problems affecting Mercury General.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Keeping net income above this level shows strong performance and good cost control.
Confirms:Net income was over $200 million for Q2. This shows strong financial health.
Disproves:Net income drops below $200 million. This raises worries about making money.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.3175 in the next announcement.
Disproves:Dividend per share is cut below $0.3175 in the next announcement.
Why it matters: Strong growth in net premiums written shows good market position and product demand.
Confirms:Net premiums written growth exceeds 15% in Q2, reflecting strong demand.
Disproves:Growth in net premiums written is below 10%. This shows possible market challenges.
Why it matters: Higher losses from disasters show problems in managing risk and making money.
Confirms:Q2 catastrophe losses were over $100 million. This shows a big impact from disasters.
Disproves:Catastrophe losses are under $100 million. This means risk management is working well.
Why it matters: Higher net income is key for the company’s finances. It helps with dividend payments.
Confirms:Net income reported higher than the prior year in Q2.
Disproves:Net income reported lower than the prior year in Q2.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The information included in
Other Events. On June 9, 2026, the Company entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Raymond James & Associates, Inc. with respect to the offering of the Notes. The closing of the sale of the Notes occurred on June 12, 2026. The Underwriting Agreement is filed as Exhibit 1.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The description of the Underwriting Agreement is qualifie…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of Mercury General Corporation (the “Company”), whether made before or afte…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of Mercury General Corporation (the “Company”), whether made before or afte…