Mercury General (MCY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$101.06-1.54%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Mercury General grew revenue 10.5% last year. Net income rose to $190 million. The dividend stays steady at $0.32 per share. The company trades cheap with a PE of 8.1.
Revenue growth could slow below 4%. Net income might fall from current levels. Debt from recent notes could pressure cash flow.
The price is about 15% below our fair value near $131. Analysts expect 4.4% revenue growth, less than our 10.5% recent growth view.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.3175 next year
Breaks if: net income falls below zero next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and income growth. The current thesis is stable, supported by strong financial results and a commitment to shareholder returns.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that current valuations are justified. MCY is seen as cheap compared to its peers, but there is a slight premium indicating some positive sentiment.
Management is on track with their priorities, particularly in increasing revenue and improving profitability. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of earnings misses, which could impact future results.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and their impact on MCY. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support MCY's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue growth. Fitch upgraded the outlook, which also helps revenue growth. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Enhance net income as part of the company's financial performance goals.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year
Continue to grow net premiums earned and written, expanding insurance business volume and revenue.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net premiums earned grew from $1.3667B in 2025-Q2 to $1.4978B in 2026-Q2, showing consistent year-over-year growth of 6.9% to 13.2%. Management's focus on revenue growth is delivering with steady increases in premiums earned and written.
“Net premiums earned increased 9.6% to $1,497.8 million year-over-year.”
“Net premiums earned increased 13.2% to $1,452.4 million year-over-year.”
“Net premiums earned increased 6.9% to $1,445.4 million year-over-year.”
Overall, MCY is positioned well for the next few years, but its performance will depend on external sector dynamics. Not investment advice.