Reading SMSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMSI free→Reading SMSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMSI free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.08 SMSI trades at 4× p/s — 1.5× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $7.62 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -8.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.10. 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$251.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$702.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,148.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 62.3 points (from 55.6 to -6.7).
Valuation fell by 28.8 points (from 70.0 to 41.2).
Composite insight fell by 21.3 points (from 11.2 to -10.1).
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMSI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, Smith Micro Software, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into inducement letter agreements (collectively, the “Inducement Letter Agreements”) with certain holders (the “Holders”) of its existing Common Warrants to purchase an aggregate of 487,349 shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.001 par value (the “Common Stock”), originally issued on or about October 2, 2024, with a current exercise price of $5.20 per sh…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMSI SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on enhancing gross profit through improved operational efficiencies.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'cautious'.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "expensive" to "full." Risk remained high. Earnings quality is fragile. Management is volatile. The sector backdrop is a tailwind.
as of 2026-06-16
Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the expectations, hopes, beliefs, intentions, plans, prospects, or strategies of the Company. Any statements contained herein that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. In addition, any statement…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026 , Smith Micro Software, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is hereby furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Se…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved the following appointments, each effective as of the close of business on March 31, 2026: - William W. Smith, Jr., age 78, as Executive Chairman; - Timothy C. Huffmyer, age 52, as President and Chief Executive Officer; and - Bethany M. Braund, age 38, as Chief Financial Officer and Treasur…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 4, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is hereby furnished to the SEC as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…