SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE INC (SMSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$2.80-1.41%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income improves toward break-even: metric not reported.
Smith Micro is cutting costs and improving profit loss. Revenue rose from $3.98M to $4.22M in one quarter. Gross profit also grew from $3.04M to $3.31M. These show the company is fixing its business.
The company is still losing money and sales are small. Earnings missed twice recently. The stock price dropped 41.5% from its high. These show risks remain high.
The price is about 55% below our fair value near $6. Analysts expect 49% revenue growth. This reflects hope for a turnaround but also risk.
Breaks if: Gross profit falls below $3.04M
Breaks if: Operating income falls below -$14.95M
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.98M
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity, as SMSI is currently loss-making but is working towards improving its financial performance. The company has shown some recent revenue growth, but management's execution remains volatile.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation that is cheap compared to peers, reflecting the ongoing challenges SMSI faces. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may have low expectations for significant near-term improvements.
Fundamentals are likely to improve gradually as management focuses on driving revenue growth and achieving sustainable profitability. However, the company has a high risk profile, and recent financial performance has been weak, which could hinder progress.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly in driving revenue and managing capital effectively. Additionally, external factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and performance of sector bellwethers will play a crucial role in shaping SMSI's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The earnings call clarified financial performance. It also highlighted revenue growth and sustainable profitability. The company expects Q3 2026 revenue of $5.0M-$5.4M. There are no new threats noted in the desk.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SMSI's path will depend on its operational execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.