Reading SMPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMPL free→Reading SMPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMPL free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If SMPL cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 SMPL trades at 7× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $12–$20. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.46 (+2.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$368.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,934.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margins shows rising costs. This hurts profits and investor trust.
Confirms:Gross margins reported declining by 300 to 350 basis points.
Disproves:Gross margins decline less than 300 basis points.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Downgrade indicates concerns about future revenue growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 20, 2026, The Simply Good Foods Company (the "Company"), announced several corporate realignment initiatives. As noted in this announcement, Ms. Amy Held, currently Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer and a named executive officer, will depart the Company by June 1, 2026. In connection with her departure, Ms. Held will…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.00 – $20.00 (median $13.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMPL Simply Good Foods Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has provided revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, expecting a range between -10% and -7% year-over-year.
Management has set adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026, expecting a decline of 22% to 19% year-over-year.
Management expects gross margins to decline by 300 to 350 basis points year-over-year for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This range shows how the company deals with challenges. It shows management's hope for recovery.
Confirms one read:Q3 net sales reported within the range of $329 to $338 million.
Confirms the other:Q3 net sales reported below $329 million.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin will hurt profits. It is important to watch costs.
Confirms:Gross margin drops more than the current mixed status shows.
Disproves:Gross margin stays the same or gets better.
Why it matters: The revenue guidance will show if the company can grow despite challenges. It is a key measure of performance.
Confirms one read:Management raises revenue guidance. This is better than the current mixed status.
Confirms the other:Management lowers revenue guidance or keeps it the same.
Why it matters: A new president could change company direction. This may affect performance and investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The new president will share new plans in the next three months.
Confirms the other:No new initiatives or clear direction from the new president after three months.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a positive shift in the market. This could help Simply Good Foods stand out in a slow-growing sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 9, 2026, The Simply Good Foods Company, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), reported its results for the fiscal second quarter ended February 28, 2026. The results are discussed in detail in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, the Company has posted an investor presentation at www.thesimplygoodfoodscompany.com. The information in this item, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished, not filed. Accordingly…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Joseph E. Scalzo as a Director On January 28, 2026, after the completion of the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of The Simply Good Foods Company (the “Company”), the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) appointed Joseph E. Scalzo to the Board to serve until the 2027 Annual Meeting of Stockholders…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, The Simply Good Foods Company, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), reported its results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended August 30, 2025. The results are discussed in detail in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, the Company has posted an investor presentation at www.thesimplygoodfoodscompany.com. The information in this item, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished, not fil…