Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$10.39-3.44%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Simply Good Foods aims to stabilize revenue near $1.33 billion in fiscal 2026. Management targets adjusted EBITDA around $221 million despite challenges. The company expects gross margins to decline by about 3.25 percentage points but plans to manage costs. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8, offering value if turnaround efforts succeed.
Revenue is expected to decline 7% to 10% in fiscal 2026, showing weak demand. Adjusted EBITDA is guided down 19% to 22%, signaling margin pressure. Gross margin contraction of 300 to 350 basis points reflects cost challenges. The recent guidance cut and downgrade highlight risks to recovery.
The market prices in about 6% revenue decline and values the stock roughly 40% below our fair value near $22. Analysts expect continued pressure on revenue and earnings. Our fair value is well above the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism on turnaround progress.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $217 million in FY26
Management has consistently provided adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026, expecting a range between $220 million and $225 million, representing a decline of about 19% to 22% year-over-year.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the Consumer Staples sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak and management faces headwinds.
The market seems to price SMPL as relatively cheap compared to its peers, but there is an expectations gap indicating that investors anticipate some challenges ahead. The valuation is justified, suggesting that the current price reflects the risks and uncertainties in the business.
Management has consistently guided for declines in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, which aligns with recent performance. The near-term risk is elevated, but the probability of missing expectations is relatively low, although the company has a history of deeper misses.
Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance without further cuts and the performance of sector leaders like KHC, GIS, and MKC. Additionally, any shifts in inflation could impact SMPL's performance positively or negatively.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings report showed a beat, which supports the read. However, potential legal issues from pending class actions threaten investor confidence and financial stability.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management expects adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 between $220 million and $225 million, a decline of about 19% to 22% year-over-year. Actual adjusted EBITDA declined approximately 20.5% year-over-year in the latest reported periods, matching management's guidance and showing delivery consistent with stated expectations.
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to range between $220 and $225 million, or -21% to -19% year-over-year”
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to range between $217 and $225 million, or -22% to -19% year-over-year”
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to range between -4% and +1% year-over-year”
Breaks if: Gross margin declines more than 3.5 percentage points in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.31 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SMPL's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.