Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.41-6.05%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Simply Good Foods Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	$322M–$332M	—
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	298.84M
EPS	—	0.379
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.35B–$1.36B	—
Capital expenditure	$20M–$25M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	1.667
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.26B
EPS	—	1.789

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA near $221 million in fiscal 2026	Management targets adjusted EBITDA around $221 million despite challenges.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $217 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management expects adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 between $220 million and $225 million, a decline of about 19% to 22% year-over-year. Actual adjusted EBITDA declined approximately 20.5% year-over-year in the latest reported periods, matching management's guidance and showing delivery consistent with stated expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 7, 2026
Gross margin decline limited to 3.25 percentage points in fiscal 2026	The company expects gross margins to decline by about 3.25 percentage points but plans to manage costs.	Broken	Gross margin declines more than 3.5 percentage points in FY26	Gross margin: 32.52% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: decline of 3.25 percentage points. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 9, 202632.522277 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending May 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b549de09-3357-43d7-8b01-c57bccb1d2ea. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management forecasts gross margin declines of approximately 300 to 375 basis points year-over-year for fiscal 2026. Actual gross margins declined about 390 basis points in 2026-Q2 and 460 basis points in 2026-Q1 versus prior year periods, reflecting inflation and restructuring costs. The trajectory matches management's stated expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 7, 2026
Revenue near $1.33 billion in fiscal 2026	Simply Good Foods aims to stabilize revenue near $1.33 billion in fiscal 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.31 billion in FY26	Revenue: $356.983M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.33 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 9, 2026356,983,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending May 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b549de09-3357-43d7-8b01-c57bccb1d2ea. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management updated fiscal year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $1.345 to $1.355 billion, reflecting a decline of roughly 6% to 7% year-over-year. Actual year-to-date net sales declined 5.4% versus prior year, consistent with the guidance range. The trajectory shows management maintaining this revenue decline outlook consistently. Delivery assessment Oct 7, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$1.26B

$1.29B → $1.26B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,291,242,109	1 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,280,757,320	1 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,280,757,320	1 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,280,757,320	1 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,280,757,320	1 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,280,757,320	1 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,275,464,433	1 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,275,464,433	1 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,275,464,433	1 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,263,131,100	1 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	7
2026-06-01	5	8
2026-07-01	4	7
2026-08-01	4	7
2026-09-01	4	7
2026-10-01	3	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA near $221 million in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin decline limited to 3.25 percentage points in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue near $1.33 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $356.983M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Simply Good Foods Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a challenged consumer staples business, not a steady compounder at present. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent signals improved modestly, but financial performance remains weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Simply Good Foods Company

SMPL appears cheap versus peers, and the valuation evidence suggests expectations are subdued. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that reading is medium; the evidence does not show that weak results are fully reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management expects fiscal 2026 sales to decline about 6% to 7% and adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings, to fall about 19% to 22%. Recent sales and earnings declines are broadly consistent with guidance, while gross margins have fallen more than the forecast range in the reported quarters. Recent earnings beats are a positive change, but weakening results, a leadership transition, and a possible guidance cut remain risks.

What Simply Good Foods Company hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether sales and margins stabilize after the expected fiscal 2026 declines. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment data could increase pressure on the business and the consumer staples sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would be a favorable signal.