Reading SLVM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsPaper & Paper ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SLVM trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on guidance from SLVM's next earnings call, as a cut in guidance could have a meaningful negative impact. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 SLVM trades at 19× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.70 → $0.53 (-23.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$353.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,387.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Price increases can help margins. They can also stabilize revenue during tough times.
Confirms:Paper price increases were reported in all regions in Q2.
Disproves:There were no big paper price increases in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SLVM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and General Instruction B.2 thereunder. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. SECTION 2. FINANCIAL INFORMATION.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SLVM Sylvamo Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Sylvamo aims to generate more than $300 million in free cash flow annually as industry conditions improve.
Sylvamo is committed to maintaining a dividend of $0.45 per share.
Sylvamo aims to improve cash from operating activities amidst challenging market conditions.
Aim to stabilize revenue levels despite facing market challenges.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.45 per share dividend shows the company is stable and has cash.
Confirms:An official announcement will confirm the dividend stays at $0.45 per share.
Disproves:An announcement of a dividend cut or stop.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health. Cuts could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.45 per share for Q2.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $0.45 per share.
Why it matters: Stable revenue shows the company is handling market challenges well.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue reported flat or growing year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue reported declining year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations is important for financial health and goals.
Confirms:Q2 cash from operations is higher than Q1.
Disproves:Q2 cash from operations is lower than Q1.
Why it matters: Recovering sales volume is key. It helps stabilize revenue after recent drops.
Confirms:North America sales volume rose compared to Q1.
Disproves:North America sales volume is still dropping compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects could boost capacity. It can also make operations more efficient.
Confirms:The paper machine optimization project will be done by Q4.
Disproves:Delays in completing the Eastover mill projects beyond Q4.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is a key measure of financial health. Positive cash flow signals recovery.
Confirms:Q2 free cash flow reported as less negative than negative $59 million.
Disproves:Q2 free cash flow remains more negative than negative $59 million.
of Form 8-K and General Instruction B.2 thereunder. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. SECTION 2. FINANCIAL INFORMATION.