Reading SLGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SLGN free→Reading SLGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SLGN free→NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact performance compared with sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 SLGN trades at 11× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $70 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $46–$56. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.96 → $0.96 (-0.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 9 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$253.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,523.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong volume growth in this segment is key to offsetting inflation impacts on profits.
Confirms:Volume growth in Dispensing and Specialty Closures is higher than last year.
Disproves:Volume growth in Dispensing and Specialty Closures is below prior year levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SLGN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 26, 2026, at the Registrant’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders, or the Meeting, the stockholders of the Registrant approved the First Amendment, or the Amendment, to the Silgan Holdings Inc. Second Amended and Restated 2004 Stock Incentive Plan, or the Plan. The Amendment was previously approve…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$46.00 – $56.00 (median $50.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-30
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SLGN Silgan Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 4.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Silgan aims to increase its earnings estimate for the full year of 2026.
Silgan confirms its free cash flow estimate for the full year of 2026.
Silgan continues to maintain and increase its quarterly dividend payout.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to increase gross profit through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: A steady dividend payout shows financial stability. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.21 per share in the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend payout below $0.21 per share.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is important for spending money and keeping dividends.
Confirms:Free cash flow for 2026 is about $450 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow for 2026 is lowered from about $450 million.
Why it matters: Stable or growing gross profit shows success in making more money.
Confirms:Q2 gross profit increases year over year from $265.8 million.
Disproves:Q2 gross profit decreases year over year or stays below $265.8 million.
Why it matters: Higher raw material costs can lower profits and hurt margins.
Confirms:If raw material costs go down, margins will improve.
Disproves:Raw material costs continue to rise, further squeezing margins.
Why it matters: Growth in the sector can affect Silgan's performance and future.
Confirms one read:3-year revenue growth in the materials sector picks back up above 1%.
Confirms the other:3-year revenue growth in the materials sector continues to decline or stays below 1%.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if the company can maintain earnings growth amid rising costs.
Confirms one read:Guidance for Q2 adjusted net income per diluted share in the range of $0.92 to $1.02.
Confirms the other:Guidance for Q2 adjusted net income per diluted share below $0.92.
Other Events. On May 12, 2026, the Registrant announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock of $0.21 per share, payable on June 15, 2026 to the holders of record of common stock of the Registrant on June 1, 2026. For additional information regarding this announcement, refer to Exhibit 99.1 filed with this Current Report on Form 8-K. Section 9—Financial Statements and Exhibits
of Form 8-K, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, regardless of the general incorporation language of such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in su…
Other Events. On February 24, 2026, the Registrant announced that its Board of Directors approved an increase in the Registrant's quarterly cash dividend to $0.21 per share, representing a 5 percent increase in the Registrant's quarterly cash dividend from last year, and declared a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock of $0.21 per share, payable on March 31, 2026 to the holders of record of common stock of the Registrant on March 17, 2026. For additional information regarding this anno…
of Form 8-K, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, regardless of the general incorporation language of such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in su…