Silgan Holdings (SLGN)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.30-1.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Silgan Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.09 → 4.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.55B
EPS	—	0.806
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.87B
EPS	—	3.813
Capital expenditure	About $310M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.38B
EPS	—	4.043

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend of at least $0.21 per share	The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.21 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.21 quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.21 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.21 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8504b466-77a9-47c8-8623-3ce6ad872d2a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EPS for 2026 at $3.73-$3.93	Silgan Holdings grows earnings steadily with a 3% EPS increase target for 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.73 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow of at least $450 million in 2026	Free cash flow is solid at $450 million, supporting dividends.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $450 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-258.521M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $450 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-258,521,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.04

$4.10 → $4.04 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.38B

$7.01B → $7.38B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.10	$7,010,027,660	13 / 13
2026-07-25	$4.10	$7,010,027,660	13 / 13
2026-07-26	$4.10	$7,010,027,660	13 / 13
2026-07-27	$4.10	$7,010,027,660	13 / 13
2026-07-28	$4.10	$7,010,027,660	13 / 13
2026-07-29	$4.10	$7,010,027,660	13 / 13
2026-07-30	$4.10	$7,010,064,219	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$4.09	$7,030,265,350	13 / 13
2026-08-01	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$4.09	$7,030,265,350	13 / 13
2026-08-03	$4.09	$7,030,265,350	13 / 13
2026-08-04	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.09	$7,030,265,350	13 / 13
2026-08-08	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-10	$4.09	$7,030,265,350	13 / 13
2026-08-12	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$4.09	$7,030,246,211	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$4.09	$7,024,284,129	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$4.09	$7,024,284,129	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$4.09	$7,024,284,129	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$4.09	$7,024,284,129	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$4.09	$7,024,284,129	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$4.09	$7,021,021,376	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$4.09	$7,021,021,376	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$4.09	$7,021,021,376	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$4.09	$7,021,021,376	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$4.09	$7,021,021,376	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$4.09	$7,021,021,376	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$4.09	$7,014,944,452	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$4.09	$7,014,944,452	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$4.09	$7,022,819,483	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$4.05	$7,211,890,954	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$4.04	$7,227,950,050	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$4.04	$7,227,950,050	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$4.04	$7,381,250,050	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	10	2
2026-07-01	11	2
2026-08-01	12	2
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Apr 30

$56.00 → $52.00-7.1%

RBC CapitalOct 13 · prior Aug 13

$58.00 → $47.00-19.0%

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Apr 30

$52.00 → $45.00-13.5%

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 30

$47.00 → $38.00-19.1%

$0$31.90$63.80

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend of at least $0.21 per shareDividend per share: $0.21 per share
Adjusted EPS for 2026 at $3.73-$3.93Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow of at least $450 million in 2026Free cash flow: $-258.521M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Silgan Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a packaging business with a mixed execution profile, not a clear turnaround or high-growth story. Its multi-year view is intact, with improving momentum and growth in some products, while management execution remains volatile and earnings quality fragile.

What's priced into Silgan Holdings

SLGN is cheap versus peers, and the valuation model describes expectations as justified rather than showing a strongly negative priced-in setup. The evidence does not specify what level of business improvement the market assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results are neutral overall, with recent momentum improving and a low stated risk of a miss, though the company has a history of a deep miss and peers have recently missed. Over the multi-year view, growth in dispensing and pet food products supports the business, but segment profitability has been mixed and the announced Trivium combination has not yet delivered realized results.

What Silgan Holdings hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. The key longer-term questions are whether the Trivium partnership closes and delivers its expected synergies, and whether product growth translates into stronger segment earnings.