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Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$5.24-0.29%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If the Fed starts cutting rates, that would be a tailwind for RWT and other Real Estate names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $657.38M
- Employees
- 351
- IPO date
- 1996-05-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$5.36consensus
Range $4.60 – $12.32
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$16.24consensus
Range $11.11 – $21.38
vs price: -68% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $5.24 RWT trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 10× p/e peer median. Our $5.36 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.7x
peer 9.7x · own history 12.0x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast 17%
Our fair value
$5.36
range $4.47 – $12.32
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
25th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 137.98x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral1 positive, 1 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.24 (+2.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$283.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,121.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for changes in GAAP book value per share
Why it matters: Changes in book value reflect the company's financial health and market conditions.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:GAAP book value per share decreases below $7.12.
Disproves:GAAP book value per share increases above $7.36.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RWT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for RWT and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting RWT and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RWT beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +16% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping RWT and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits RWT and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 11, 2026, Redwood Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors (the "Board") declared second quarter 2026 common and preferred stock dividends. The Board declared a second quarter 2026 regular common stock dividend of $0.18 per share, payable on June 30, 2026 to stockholders of record on June 23, 2026. In accordance with the terms of the Company's 10.00% Series A Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Sto…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.