Reading RDVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RDVT free→Reading RDVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RDVT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and RDVT trades above typical sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 99% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact RDVT's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $55.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $56 RDVT trades at 45× p/e — 2.1× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $28 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 99% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.34 (+3.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$185.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$439.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,211.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Red Violet's future. It shows if management's priority is working.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RDVT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The information set forth under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RDVT Red Violet, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on building performance and capitalizing on significant opportunities to drive revenue growth.
Aim to trend adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid- to high-30% range in the near term.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA margins mean lower costs. This is important for making more money.
Confirms:EBITDA margins improve by more than 5% compared to Q1.
Disproves:EBITDA margins decline or stay flat compared to Q1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Red Violet, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Also on May 6, 2026, following the issuance of the Earnings Release, the Company conducted a conference call to discuss the reported financial results for the first quarter ended Mar…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 4, 2026, Red Violet, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Also on March 4, 2026, following the issuance of the Earnings Release, the Company conducted a conference call to discuss the reported financial results for the fourth…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On January 9, 2026, the Company and each of Derek Dubner, Chief Executive Officer, James Reilly, President, Daniel MacLachlan, Chief Financial Officer, and Jeffrey Dell, Chief Information Officer, entered into an amendment to their respective employment agreements which extended the term expiration date by approximately three years, from March 26, 2…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 5, 2025, Red Violet, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information included herein and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Exchange Act”) or otherwi…