Red Violet, Inc. (RDVT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09

$74.40-0.43%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

Intact: The reason to own it still holds.

The bull case

Red Violet grows revenue about 17% a year. Profit margins aim for mid- to high-30% EBITDA. The company buys back stock with $30 million authorized. Earnings beats show solid execution.

The bear case

Growth could slow below 10%. Margins may compress from cost pressures. The stock trades expensive at 54x PE, risking a valuation reset.

What's priced in

The price sits about 43% above our fair value near $46. Analysts expect 17% revenue growth, which we see as achievable but fully valued.

What has to stay true

Maintain share buyback program near $30 millionIntact
Capital AllocationsupportingMaintain ~$30 million buyback authorization · next 12 months (qualitative)
Breaks if: Company cancels or materially reduces buyback program
Adjusted EBITDA margin in mid- to high-30% rangeIntact
Marginprimary>=33% adjusted EBITDA margin · near term (qualitative)
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 30% next year
Revenue grows at least 17% annuallyIntact
Revenue Growthprimary>=17% YoY · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Intact· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

RDVT shows strong recent performance but carries elevated risk and expensive valuation.

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and consistent execution of management priorities.

What's priced into Red Violet, Inc. (RDVT)

The market currently prices RDVT at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting a durable premium. There is an expectations gap of 0.26, indicating that the market anticipates continued strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management is on track with its priorities of driving revenue growth and improving EBITDA margins. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which could introduce some risk.

What Red Violet, Inc. (RDVT) hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Fed to cut rates, which could benefit RDVT and other tech stocks. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like SAP, CRM, and NOW will be crucial for maintaining momentum.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

score change · company_momentum_score
big change
Company momentum fell by 50.0 points (from 57.5 to 7.5).
label change · signal_label
moderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.

Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue growth objectives. This reinforces the overall thesis for the company. There are no new threats identified at this time.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.