FreightCar America Inc (RAIL)
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$4.180.00%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put RAIL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Achieve $500 to $550 million revenue in 2026: Revenue guidance: $410M to $460M.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 1% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 73% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskRAIL’s case rests on railcar deliveries and 2026 revenue, yet its primary revenue pillar is broken. The latest recorded quarter was inline, with no year-over-year revenue figure available. RAIL trades at 14× P/E versus a 22× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the reduced revenue outlook. The 2026 revenue guidance of $410 million to $460 million falls below the $500 million to $550 million pillar. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 37%. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. RAIL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 2 analysts currently covering RAIL (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare RAIL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Industrials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put RAIL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Railcar Deliveries 3,500 - 3,900 in 2026
Cancelled retrofit order and major guidance cut threaten delivery outlook and execution.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Revenue Guidance $410 - $460 million for 2026
Reported outlook cut and lost tank-car order threaten 2026 revenue guidance and delivery targets.
Advances: Railcar Deliveries 3,500 - 3,900 in 2026
Market share gains support railcar delivery targets.
Advances: Railcar Deliveries 3,500 - 3,900 in 2026
Record market share supports railcar delivery targets.
Threatens: Revenue Guidance $410 - $460 million for 2026
Revenue guidance impacted by delivery shift to 2027.
Threatens: Revenue Guidance $410 - $460 million for 2026
Q2 loss raises concerns about revenue guidance.
Advances: Revenue Guidance $410 - $460 million for 2026
Shares rising indicates market confidence despite losses.
Advances: Revenue Guidance $500 - $550 million for 2026
New orders enhance revenue guidance for 2026.