Reading RAIL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RAIL free→Reading RAIL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RAIL free→NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with RAIL trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends from major players like UNP, CSX, and NSC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.17 RAIL trades at 12× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 50% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.00 (-75.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$207.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,034.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact FreightCar's costs to borrow money. They can also affect how many customers want to buy.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RAIL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of FreightCar America, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Bradley J. Pickard to the Board as a Class II director, effective June 10, 2026. In connection with this appointment, the Board increased its size to nine (9) directors. The initial term of Mr. Pickard's service on the Board will continue un…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RAIL FreightCar America Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to deliver between 4,000 and 4,500 railcars in fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently reaffirmed its target for railcar deliveries in 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific delivery numbers for the current period, indicating limited substantive delivery evidence so far.
“The Company is reaffirming the outlook for fiscal year 2026: Railcar Deliveries 4,000 - 4,500 Railcars.”
“Railcar Deliveries 4,000 - 4,500 Railcars.”
The company projects revenue between $500 million and $550 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $64.3 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the annual target. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the full-year guidance.
The company aims to improve its operating income, which was negative in the latest quarter.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating income was negative $594,000 in 2026-Q1, a decline from positive $7.78 million in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows a need for improvement to achieve positive operating income.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends can change how many orders FreightCar gets and its revenue.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 1% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, FreightCar America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 9, 2026, FreightCar America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and provided its financial outlook for the full year 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 10, 2025, FreightCar America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 11, 2025, the board of directors (the “Board”) of FreightCar America, Inc. (the “Company”), upon recommendation of the compensation committee of the Board, approved amendments to the employment arrangements of Nicholas J. Randall, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, and Michael A. Riordan, the Company’s Chief Financial…
“The Company is reaffirming the outlook for fiscal year 2026: Revenue $500 - $550 million.”
“Projecting growth in 2026... Revenue $500 - $550 million.”
“Operating income was negative $594,000 in 2026-Q1.”